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Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

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  • Joseph E. Potter
  • Carl P. Schmertmann
  • Renato M. Assunção
  • Suzana M. Cavenaghi

Abstract

Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40-year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic . Copyright (c) 2010 The Population Council, Inc..

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Potter & Carl P. Schmertmann & Renato M. Assunção & Suzana M. Cavenaghi, 2010. "Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 283-307.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:36:y:2010:i:2:p:283-307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ernesto Amaral & Bernardo Queiroz & Júlia Calazans, 2015. "Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Agnese Vitali & Arnstein Aassve & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "Diffusion of Childbearing Within Cohabitation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 355-377, April.
    3. Corey Sparks & Joey Campbell, 2014. "An Application of Bayesian Methods to Small Area Poverty Rate Estimates," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), pages 455-477.
    4. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Emanuela Dreassi & Emilia Rocco & Daniele Vignoli, 2017. "A subregional space-time exploration of family change: Italian municipalities, 1991-2011," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2017_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    5. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
    6. Letícia Marteleto & Laetícia Souza, 2012. "The Changing Impact of Family Size on Adolescents’ Schooling: Assessing the Exogenous Variation in Fertility Using Twins in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1453-1477, November.
    7. Ernesto Lima Amaral, 2012. "The Decomposition of Economic Outcomes as a Result of Changes in Brazil’s Male Age–Education Structure," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), pages 883-905.
    8. Ernesto Friedrich de Lima Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo Rios-Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612, March.

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