IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v48y2023i34.html

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition

Author

Listed:
  • Narae Park

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Sangita Vyas

    (City University of New York)

  • Kathleen Broussard

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Dean Spears

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Objective: To compare fertility in India to both low-to-middle-income and high-income countries (LMICs and HICs) and describe the patterns that have accompanied India’s transition to low fertility. Methods: We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to observe factors associated with fertility decline in 36 Indian states and 76 countries. Results: Although fertility in India has declined to levels similar to HICs, women’s entry into marriage and initiation of childbearing are more in line with patterns found in LMICs. The vast majority of women in India (97%) are married by age 30, and their average age at first birth is only 21.3 years old. In spite of these patterns, average fertility has declined in India as a result of earlier termination of childbearing. Among more recent cohorts, fewer women progressed to higher-order births and about half of women obtained a sterilization by age 35. Conclusions: India has reached low fertility by mechanisms outside the traditional indicators of fertility decline. In contrast to countries that have achieved low fertility through delayed age at first birth, women in India have continued to enter unions and bear children early, lowered their age at last birth, and increasingly ended their fertility via sterilization following the birth of two children. Contribution: Evidence from India reveals an alternative pathway to low fertility, highlighting the limitations of traditional socioeconomic indicators for explaining fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Narae Park & Sangita Vyas & Kathleen Broussard & Dean Spears, 2023. "Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(34), pages 945-956.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:34
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol48/34/48-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Devaney, 1983. "An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 20(2), pages 147-161, May.
    2. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan & Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "Introduction: education and fertility in low-fertility settings," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 001-16.
    3. Joseph Potter & Carl Schmertmann & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2002. "Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(4), pages 739-761, November.
    4. Sam Hyun Yoo, 2014. "Educational differentials in cohort fertility during the fertility transition in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(53), pages 1463-1494.
    5. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(6), pages 147-180.
    6. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carl Schmertmann & Joseph Potter & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2008. "Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Patterns in Brazil’s Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2019. "Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2021. "Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 263-295, March.
    4. José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva & Everton E. Lima & Maria Coleta Ferreira Albino de Oliveira, 2022. "Educational pairings and fertility decline in Brazil: An analysis using cohort fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(6), pages 147-178.
    5. Joseph E. Potter & Carl P. Schmertmann & Renato M. Assunção & Suzana M. Cavenaghi, 2010. "Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 283-307, June.
    6. Nisén, Jessica & Klüsener, Sebastian & Dahlberg, Johan & Dommermuth, Lars & Jasilioniene, Aiva & Kreyenfeld, Michaela & Lappegård, Trude & Li, Peng & Martikainen, Pekka & Neels, Karel & Riederer, Bern, 2020. "Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106201, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    8. Kathryn Yount & Sarah Zureick-Brown & Nafisa Halim & Kayla LaVilla, 2014. "Fertility Decline, Girls’ Well-being, and Gender Gaps in Children’s Well-being in Poor Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 535-561, April.
    9. Leticia Marteleto & Molly Dondero, 2013. "Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(28), pages 793-820.
    10. David Roodman, 2020. "The impact of life-saving interventions on fertility," Papers 2007.11388, arXiv.org.
    11. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Renato Assunção & Carl Schmertmann & Joseph Potter & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2005. "Empirical bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 537-558, August.
    13. Fujii, Tomoki & Shonchoy, Abu S. & Xu, Sijia, 2018. "Impact of Electrification on Children’s Nutritional Status in Rural Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 315-330.
    14. Dean M. Hanink, 2010. "Perspectives on Regional Change: A Review Essay on Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 3-27, March.
    15. Silke van Daalen & Hal Caswell, 2015. "Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(20), pages 561-588.
    16. David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
    17. Vegard Skirbekk & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2025. "Bringing mortality back into our understanding of fertility change: revisiting the onset of fertility transitions using net reproduction measures," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Nisén, Jessica & Tassot, Johanna & Iacoella, Francesco & Eibich, Peter, 2024. "Does Early Timing of First Birth Lead to Lower Earnings in Midlife in Britain?," IZA Discussion Papers 17494, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Madia, Joan E. & Moscone, Francesco & Tabaghdehi, Asieh Hosseini & An, Jong-Chol & Lee, Changkeun, 2025. "Fertility decline and tax revenues in South Korea," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    20. Chen, Junshi & Chi, Jing & Smith, David & Yuen, Mui Kuen, 2025. "How does digital finance impact birth rates: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1945-1965.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:48:y:2023:i:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.