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Co-Integration Between Fertility and Human Development Indicators: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullah, Muhammad
  • Chani, Muhammad Irfan
  • Ali, Amjad
  • Shoukat, Ayza

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to investigate the long run co-integration and short run dynamics between fertility decline and development indicators in Pakistan. Bound Testing approach (ARDL) and VECM are applied on annual time series data from 1971-2010 after finding mixed order of integration of the series through Ng -Perron unit root test. The results show that long run co-integration and short run dynamics exist between total fertility rate and Human Development Indicators (secondary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita). Secondary school enrollment and life expectancy at birth prove the negative and significant impact on fertility, while GDP per capita indicated the positive but insignificant impact on fertility. The findings of study suggest that more resources should be invested in human capital formation through the provision of better education and health facilities to keep the fertility on declining.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah, Muhammad & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ali, Amjad & Shoukat, Ayza, 2013. "Co-Integration Between Fertility and Human Development Indicators: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49134
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49134/1/MPRA_paper_49134.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
    2. Schultz, T Paul, 1994. "Human Capital, Family Planning, and Their Effects on Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 255-260, May.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Paul Gertler & John Molyneaux, 1994. "How economic development and family planning programs combined to reduce indonesian fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 33-63, February.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Karen Mason, 1997. "Explaining fertility transitions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(4), pages 443-454, November.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Joseph Potter & Carl Schmertmann & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2002. "Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(4), pages 739-761, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2016. "A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 20-36, March.
    2. repec:rfh:bbejor:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:166-174 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; School Enrollment; Life Expectancy; GDP per Capita; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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