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US Presidential Elections and the Spatial Pattern of the American Second Demographic Transition

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  • Ron Lesthaeghe
  • Lisa Neidert

Abstract

This research note is a sequel to an earlier article in this journal (Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006) in which we documented a strong and robust spatial correlation between the 2000 and 2004 presidential election results on the one hand and the extent to which states and counties had evolved on the “second demographic transition” (SDT) dimension. At that time the critique was voiced that this was an exceptional result valid for the Bush elections only, given the prominence of the “culture war” issues during these election campaigns. This correlation was predicted to shrink substantially if economic issues instead of cultural and life style ones were dominant campaign topics. The 2008 Obama–McCain contest provides a good test for this proposition, since the elections took place at a time when economic issues had risen to great prominence in the debate. In this note we show that the spatial association between the vote for McCain and the county‐ or state‐level values on the SDT dimension remained as strong and as robust as before. Moreover, controls for competing explanations again failed to weaken or eliminate the correlation with the SDT dimension. Instead, anomalies in the correlations in 2004 for several Southern and Appalachian states disappeared in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Lesthaeghe & Lisa Neidert, 2009. "US Presidential Elections and the Spatial Pattern of the American Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 391-400, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:35:y:2009:i:2:p:391-400
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00284.x
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    1. Ron J. Lesthaeghe & Lisa Neidert, 2006. "The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 669-698, December.
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    2. Arpino Bruno & Mogi Ryohei, 2024. "Is Intending to Have Children Rightist? A Research Note on Political Ideology and Fertility Intentions," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 117-136.
    3. Arland Thornton, 2010. "International family change and continuity: the past and future from of the developmental idealism perspective," Demográfia, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 53(5), pages 21-50.
    4. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Emanuela Dreassi & Emilia Rocco & Daniele Vignoli, 2017. "A subregional space-time exploration of family change: Italian municipalities, 1991-2011," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2017_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    5. David Pelletier, 2016. "The diffusion of cohabitation and children’s risks of family dissolution in Canada," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(45), pages 1317-1342.
    6. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    7. Joseph E. Potter & Carl P. Schmertmann & Renato M. Assunção & Suzana M. Cavenaghi, 2010. "Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 283-307, June.

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