Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models
This paper develops a framework for developing forecasts of future mortality rates. We discuss the suitability of six stochastic mortality models for forecasting future mortality and estimating the density of mortality rates at different ages. In particular, the models are assessed individually with reference to the following qualitative criteria that focus on the plausibility of their forecasts: biological reasonableness; the plausibility of predicted levels of uncertainty in forecasts at different ages; and the robustness of the forecasts relative to the sample period used to fit the model. An important, though unsurprising, conclusion is that a good fit to historical data does not guarantee sensible forecasts. We also discuss the issue of model risk, common to many modelling situations in demography and elsewhere. We find that even for those models satisfying our qualitative criteria, there are significant differences among central forecasts of mortality rates at different ages and among the distributions surrounding those central forecasts.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
- Luc, BAUWENS & Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2006.
"General to Specific Modelling of Exchange Rate Volatility : a Forecast Evaluation,"
Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques)
2006013, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
- BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, . "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2234, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," CORE Discussion Papers 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Sucarrat, Genaro & Bauwens, Luc, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Robert McNown & Andrei Rogers, 1989. "Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 645-660, November.
- Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
- Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2010. "Evaluating the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 255-265, December.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 79-120, May.
- Edouard Debonneuil, 2010. "A simple model of mortality trends aiming at universality: Lee Carter + Cohort," Papers 1003.1802, arXiv.org.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:48:y:2011:i:3:p:355-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.