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Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models

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Cited by:

  1. Jose Garrido & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Olympio & Max Popp, 2024. "Climate Risk and its Impact on Insurance [Risque climatique et impact en assurance]," Post-Print hal-04684634, HAL.
  2. Salvatore Scognamiglio & Mario Marino, 2023. "Backtesting stochastic mortality models by prediction interval-based metrics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3825-3847, August.
  3. Broeders, Dirk & Mehlkopf, Roel & van Ool, Annick, 2021. "The economics of sharing macro-longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 440-458.
  4. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
  5. Debonneuil, Edouard & Loisel, Stéphane & Planchet, Frédéric, 2018. "Do actuaries believe in longevity deceleration?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 325-338.
  6. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  7. FLICI, Farid, 2016. "The future of longevity and life annuities pricing in Algeria: comparison of mortality models," SocArXiv 2tdgm, Center for Open Science.
  8. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2017. "Retirement spending and biological age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 58-76.
  9. Bruszas, Sandy & Kaschützke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Siegelin, Ivonne, 2018. "Unisex pricing of German participating life annuities—Boon or bane for customer and insurance company?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 230-245.
  10. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
  11. Hong Li & Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg, 2017. "Robust Mean–Variance Hedging of Longevity Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 459-475, April.
  12. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin, 2017. "Semi-parametric extensions of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model: A one-dimensional kernel smoothing approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-176.
  13. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
  14. Yang, Bowen & Li, Jackie & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2015. "Using bootstrapping to incorporate model error for risk-neutral pricing of longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-27.
  15. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2019. "Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  16. David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
  17. Hong Li & Yang Lu, 2018. "A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality," Post-Print hal-02419000, HAL.
  18. Carfora, M.F. & Cutillo, L. & Orlando, A., 2017. "A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models on Italian population data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 198-214.
  19. Risk, J. & Ludkovski, M., 2016. "Statistical emulators for pricing and hedging longevity risk products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 45-60.
  20. Cuixia Liu & Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Extensions of the Lee–Carter model to project the data‐driven rotation of age‐specific mortality decline and forecast coherent mortality rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 813-834, July.
  21. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Guy Coughlan & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2013. "The New Life Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 501-558, September.
  22. David McCarthy, 2021. "80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-412, June.
  23. Mitchell, Daniel & Brockett, Patrick & Mendoza-Arriaga, Rafael & Muthuraman, Kumar, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 275-285.
  24. Chong It Tan & Jackie Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Uditha Balasooriya, 2016. "Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 307-331, December.
  25. Karim Barigou & Stéphane Loisel & Yahia Salhi, 2020. "Parsimonious Predictive Mortality Modeling by Regularization and Cross-Validation with and without Covid-Type Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
  26. Lydia Dutton & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Malgorzata Seklecka, 2020. "The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 533-550, April.
  27. Zuo, Wenyun & Damle, Anil & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2025. "Sensitivity and uncertainty in the Lee–Carter mortality model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 781-797.
  28. Cannon, Edmund & Tonks, Ian, 2016. "Cohort mortality risk or adverse selection in annuity markets?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 68-81.
  29. Norkhairunnisa Redzwan & Rozita Ramli, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
  30. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2020. "A more meaningful parameterization of the Lee–Carter model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-8.
  31. Carlo Favero & Marco Giacoletti, 2011. "Progress in Medicine, Limits to Life and Forecasting Mortality," Working Papers 406, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  32. Hao, Xuemiao & Liang, Chunli & Wei, Linghua, 2017. "Evaluation of credit value adjustment in K-forward," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 95-103.
  33. Michael Ludkovski & James Risk, 2017. "Sequential Design and Spatial Modeling for Portfolio Tail Risk Measurement," Papers 1710.05204, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
  34. Colin O’hare & Youwei Li, 2017. "Models of mortality rates – analysing the residuals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(52), pages 5309-5323, November.
  35. Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Boonen, Tim J. & De Waegenaere, Anja & Norde, Henk, 2017. "Redistribution of longevity risk: The effect of heterogeneous mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-188.
  37. Goecke, Oskar, 2015. "Asset Liability-Management in einem selbstfinanzierenden Pensionsfonds," Forschung am ivwKöln 9/2015, Technische Hochschule Köln – University of Applied Sciences, Institute for Insurance Studies.
  38. Dowd, Kevin & Buckner, Dean & Blake, David & Fry, John, 2019. "The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  39. Li, Hong & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2015. "The choice of sample size for mortality forecasting: A Bayesian learning approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 153-168.
  40. Tan, Chong It & Li, Jackie & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2014. "Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 285-299.
  41. Li, Han & Liu, Haibo & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2023. "Pricing extreme mortality risk in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 84-106.
  42. Kyle J. Foreman & Guangquan Li & Nicky Best & Majid Ezzati, 2017. "Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 121-139, January.
  43. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
  44. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.
  45. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
  46. Claus Baumgart & Johannes Krebs & Robert Lempertseder & Oliver Pfaffel, 2019. "Quantifying Life Insurance Risk using Least-Squares Monte Carlo," Papers 1910.03951, arXiv.org.
  47. Alexandros E. Milionis & Nikolaos G. Galanopoulos & Peter Hatzopoulos & Aliki Sagianou, 2022. "Forecasting actuarial time series: a practical study of the effect of statistical pre-adjustments," Working Papers 297, Bank of Greece.
  48. Li, Hong & Tan, Ken Seng & Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Zhu, Wenjun, 2021. "Gompertz law revisited: Forecasting mortality with a multi-factor exponential model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 268-281.
  49. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
  50. David Atance & Alejandro Balbás & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "Constructing dynamic life tables with a single-factor model," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(2), pages 787-825, December.
  51. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with international linkages: A global vector-autoregression approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 59-75.
  52. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Zhou, Rui & Hardy, Mary, 2015. "A step-by-step guide to building two-population stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 121-134.
  53. Leng, Xuan & Peng, Liang, 2016. "Inference pitfalls in Lee–Carter model for forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 58-65.
  54. Hainaut, Donatien, 2022. "A calendar year mortality model in continuous time," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  55. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
  56. Han Li & Colin O’Hare, 2019. "Mortality Forecasting: How Far Back Should We Look in Time?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
  57. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Recent declines in life expectancy: Implication on longevity risk hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 376-394.
  58. Enrico Biffis & David Blake & Lorenzo Pitotti & Ariel Sun, 2016. "The Cost of Counterparty Risk and Collateralization in Longevity Swaps," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 387-419, June.
  59. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2018. "A strategy for hedging risks associated with period and cohort effects using q-forwards," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-285.
  60. Sizhe Chen & Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang, 2025. "Is the age pension in Australia sustainable and fair? Evidence from forecasting the old-age dependency ratio using the Hamilton-Perry model," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-27, March.
  61. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
  62. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
  63. Tim J. Boonen & Hong Li, 2017. "Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(5), pages 1921-1946, October.
  64. Maria Carannante & Valeria D’Amato & Steven Haberman & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2024. "Frailty-based Lee–Carter family of stochastic mortality models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5081-5105, December.
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  66. Edouard Debonneuil, 2010. "A simple model of mortality trends aiming at universality: Lee Carter + Cohort," Papers 1003.1802, arXiv.org.
  67. S⊘ren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie‐Pier Bergeron‐Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup‐Lamb, 2020. "Longevity forecasting by socio‐economic groups using compositional data analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1167-1187, June.
  68. Barigou, Karim & Goffard, Pierre-Olivier & Loisel, Stéphane & Salhi, Yahia, 2023. "Bayesian model averaging for mortality forecasting using leave-future-out validation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 674-690.
  69. Hunt, Andrew & Villegas, Andrés M., 2015. "Robustness and convergence in the Lee–Carter model with cohort effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 186-202.
  70. Hunt, Andrew & Blake, David, 2015. "Modelling longevity bonds: Analysing the Swiss Re Kortis bond," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 12-29.
  71. O’Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2012. "Explaining young mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 12-25.
  72. Apostolos Bozikas & Georgios Pitselis, 2018. "An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-34, April.
  73. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
  74. Kevin Dowd & Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Guy Coughlan & Marwa Khalaf-Allah, 2011. "A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 334-356.
  75. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Ken Seng Tan, 2013. "Pricing Standardized Mortality Securitizations: A Two-Population Model With Transitory Jump Effects," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 733-774, September.
  76. Jaap Spreeuw & Iqbal Owadally & Muhammad Kashif, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, April.
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  79. Wan, Cheng & Bertschi, Ljudmila, 2015. "Swiss coherent mortality model as a basis for developing longevity de-risking solutions for Swiss pension funds: A practical approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-75.
  80. de Jong, Piet & Tickle, Leonie & Xu, Jianhui, 2016. "Coherent modeling of male and female mortality using Lee–Carter in a complex number framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 130-137.
  81. Colin O’hare & Youwei Li, 2017. "Modelling mortality: are we heading in the right direction?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 170-187, January.
  82. Sergio Alvares Maffra & John Armstrong & Teemu Pennanen, 2020. "Stochastic modeling of assets and liabilities with mortality risk," Papers 2005.09974, arXiv.org.
  83. Flici, Farrid, 2016. "Projection des taux de mortalité par âges pour la population algérienne [Forecasting The Age Specific Mortality Rates For The Algerian Population]," MPRA Paper 98784, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2016.
  84. Ana Debón & Steven Haberman & Francisco Montes & Edoardo Otranto, 2021. "Do Different Models Induce Changes in Mortality Indicators? That Is a Key Question for Extending the Lee-Carter Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
  85. Matteo Dimai, 2025. "Multi-population mortality modeling with economic, environmental and lifestyle variables," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 153-205, February.
  86. Andrew J.G. Cairns & Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Guy D. Coughlan, 2014. "Longevity hedge effectiveness: a decomposition," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 217-235, February.
  87. Shang, Han Lin & Smith, Peter W.F. & Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, 2016. "A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 629-649.
  88. Dean Buckner & Kevin Dowd, 2018. "Equity Release: Another Equitable in the Making," Studies in Applied Economics 129, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
  89. Liang, Zongxia & Sheng, Wenlong, 2016. "Valuing inflation-linked death benefits under a stochastic volatility framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-58.
  90. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
  91. Joab Odhiambo & Patrick Weke & Philip Ngare, 2021. "A Deep Learning Integrated Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Sytematic Mortality Risk Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-12, June.
  92. Khadija Gasimova & Steven Haberman & Pietro Millossovich, 2025. "Solvency analysis of deferred annuities," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 48(2), pages 853-871, December.
  93. James Risk & Michael Ludkovski, 2015. "Statistical Emulators for Pricing and Hedging Longevity Risk Products," Papers 1508.00310, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
  94. Matteo Dimai, 2025. "Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic, environmental and lifestyle variables," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 48(2), pages 1161-1195, December.
  95. Han Lin Shang & Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
  96. Sergei Scherbov & Dalkhat Ediev, 2016. "Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(2), pages 39-62.
  97. O'Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2014. "Identifying structural breaks in stochastic mortality models," MPRA Paper 62994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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