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Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Lenny Stoeldraijer

    (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS))

  • Coen van Duin

    (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS))

  • Leo van Wissen

    (Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI))

  • Fanny Janssen

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:29:y:2013:i:13
    as

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    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol29/13/29-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
    2. Fred C. Pampel, 2002. "Cigarette Use and the Narrowing Sex Differential in Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 77-104.
    3. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    4. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham, 2004. "Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area," Discussion Papers 386, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Piet De Jong & Leonie Tickle, 2006. "Extending Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18.
    6. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
    7. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
    8. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
    9. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
    10. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
    11. Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
    12. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.
    13. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2011. "The future of death in America," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(1), pages 1-38, July.
    14. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
    15. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    16. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High-Income Countries, 1955-96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:44-:d:142754 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    4. Katrien Antonio & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Wilbert Ouburg, 2015. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1505, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Sergei Scherbov & Dalkhat Ediev, 2016. "Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(2), pages 39-62, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Europe; extrapolation; Lee-Carter model; Netherlands; nonlinear models; smoking;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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