Modelling residuals dependence in dynamic life tables: A geostatistical approach
The problem of modelling dynamic mortality tables is considered. In this context, the influence of age on data graduation needs to be properly assessed through a dynamic model, as mortality progresses over the years. After detrending the raw data, the residuals dependence structure is analysed, by considering them as a realisation of a homogeneous Gaussian random field defined on . This setting allows for the implementation of geostatistical techniques for the estimation of the dependence and further interpolation in the domain of interest. In particular, a complex form of interaction between age and time is considered, by taking into account a zonally anisotropic component embedded into a nonseparable covariance structure. The estimated structure is then used for prediction of mortality rates, and goodness-of-fit testing is performed through some cross-validation techniques. Comments on validity and interpretation of the results are given.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Gavin, John & Haberman, Steven & Verrall, Richard, 1993. "Moving weighted average graduation using kernel estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 113-126, April.
- Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
- Felipe, A. & Guillen, M. & Perez-Marin, A. M., 2002. "Recent Mortality Trends in the Spanish Population," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 757-786, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3128-3147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.