Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency
Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee–Carter model, we develop a dynamic asset-liability model to assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in this stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee–Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices react to changes in GDP, which itself is modelled as a stochastic process. Our simulation results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 36 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
Postal:Route de Malagnou 53, CH - 1208 Geneva
Phone: +41-22 707 66 00
Fax: +41-22 736 75 36
Web page: https://www.genevaassociation.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/41288/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000.
"Are Recessions Good for Your Health?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650.
- Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Estimating the term structure of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 492-504, April.
- Debón, A. & Montes, F. & Puig, F., 2008. "Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(3), pages 624-637, September.
- Susanne Kruse & Matthias Meitner & Michael Schroder, 2005. "On the pricing of GDP-linked financial products," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1125-1133.
- Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Wang, Jennifer L. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 235-241, February.
- Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David, 2006. "Mortality-dependent financial risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 427-440, June.
- José Tapia granados, 2008. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 323-343, May.
- Wolfgang H. Reichmuth & Samad Sarferaz, 2008. "The Influence of the Business Cycle on Mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Ulf-G. Gerdtham & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2002.
"Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD,"
NBER Working Papers
9357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006. "Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
- Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2002. "Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD," IZA Discussion Papers 654, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
- Kling, Alexander & Richter, Andreas & Ru[ss], Jochen, 2007. "The interaction of guarantees, surplus distribution, and asset allocation in with-profit life insurance policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 164-178, January.
- Heather Booth & Rob J Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006.
"Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
13/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
- Helmut Gründl & Thomas Post & Roman N. Schulze, 2006. "To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 19-41.
- Tapia Granados, José A. & Ionides, Edward L., 2008. "The reversal of the relation between economic growth and health progress: Sweden in the 19th and 20th centuries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 544-563, May.
- Gustavo Ferro, 2009. "One Possible Life Insurance Market Response to Ageing," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(1), pages 119-136, January.
- Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011.
"Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
- Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497.
- Bauer Daniel & Weber Frederik, 2008. "Assessing Investment and Longevity Risks within Immediate Annuities," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, September.
- Tijmen R. Daniels & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2008.
"Defending against Speculative Attacks,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
08-090/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Apr 2009.
- Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
- Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
- Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Longevity risk in portfolios of pension annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 505-519, April.
- Katja Hanewald, 2008. "Beyond the business cycle - factors driving aggregate mortality rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Neumayer, Eric, 2004. "Recessions lower (some) mortality rates:: evidence from Germany," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 1037-1047, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:458-475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.