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Stochastic mortality, macroeconomic risks, and life insurer solvency

  • Hanewald, Katja
  • Post, Thomas
  • Gründl, Helmut

Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we develop a dynamic asset-liability model to assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in this stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices react to changes in GDP, which itself is modelled as a stochastic process. Our simulation results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.

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Paper provided by International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR), Goethe University Frankfurt in its series ICIR Working Paper Series with number 01/11.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:0111
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  1. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006. "Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
  2. Helmut Gründl & Thomas Post & Roman N. Schulze, 2006. "To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 19-41.
  3. Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Wang, Jennifer L. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 235-241, February.
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  5. Bauer Daniel & Weber Frederik, 2008. "Assessing Investment and Longevity Risks within Immediate Annuities," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, September.
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  7. Christopher J. Ruhm, 1996. "Are Recessions Good For Your Health?," NBER Working Papers 5570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. José Tapia granados, 2008. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan," Demography, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 323-343, May.
  9. Susanne Kruse & Matthias Meitner & Michael Schroder, 2005. "On the pricing of GDP-linked financial products," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1125-1133.
  10. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
  11. Kling, Alexander & Richter, Andreas & Ru[ss], Jochen, 2007. "The interaction of guarantees, surplus distribution, and asset allocation in with-profit life insurance policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 164-178, January.
  12. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
  13. Gustavo Ferro, 2009. "One Possible Life Insurance Market Response to Ageing," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(1), pages 119-136, January.
  14. repec:dgr:uvatin:20080090 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
  16. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Estimating the term structure of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 492-504, April.
  17. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
  18. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Longevity risk in portfolios of pension annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 505-519, April.
  19. Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497.
  20. Tapia Granados, José A. & Ionides, Edward L., 2008. "The reversal of the relation between economic growth and health progress: Sweden in the 19th and 20th centuries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 544-563, May.
  21. Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David, 2006. "Mortality-dependent financial risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 427-440, June.
  22. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  23. Debón, A. & Montes, F. & Puig, F., 2008. "Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(3), pages 624-637, September.
  24. Katja Hanewald, 2008. "Beyond the business cycle - factors driving aggregate mortality rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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