Comonotonic approximations to quantiles of life annuity conditional expected present value
In large portfolios, the risk borne by annuity providers (insurance companies or pension funds) is basically driven by the randomness in the future mortality rates. To fix the ideas, we adopt here the standard Lee-Carter framework, where the future forces of mortality are decomposed in a log-bilinear way. This paper aims to provide accurate approximations for the quantiles of the conditional expected present value of the payments to the annuity provider, given the future path of the Lee-Carter time index. Mortality is stochastic while the discount factors are derived from a zero-coupon yield curve and are assumed to be deterministic. Numerical illustrations based on Belgian mortality (general population and insurance market statistics) show that the accuracy of the approximations proposed in this paper is remarkable, with relative difference less than 1% for most probability levels.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaas, Rob & Dhaene, Jan & Goovaerts, Marc J., 2000. "Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 151-168, October.
- Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 133-161, October.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-33, August.
- Denuit, Michel & Vermandele, Catherine, 1998. "Optimal reinsurance and stop-loss order," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 229-233, July.
- Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
- Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:2:p:831-838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.