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Citations for "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective"

by Allan H. Meltzer

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  1. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lee, Yen Hsien & Wu, Meng-Wen & Guo, Na, 2016. "Does housing boom lead to credit boom or is it the other way around? The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-367.
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
  3. Mervyn A. King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
  4. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2009. "Money in a DSGE framework with an application to the Euro Zone," ESSEC Working Papers DR 09005, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  5. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Efectos regionales de la política monetaria en Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional 32, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Erjon Luci & Marta Muco & Peter Sanfey, 2001. "Stabilization, monetary policy and financial institutions in Albania," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 16, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  7. Philip Turner, 2011. "Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate," FMG Special Papers sp199, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
  9. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4A, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0037 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2016. "How might the South be helped by Northern technology yet harmed by Northern money?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 83-91.
  13. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, april..
  14. Iwata, Shigeru & Wu, Shu, 2006. "Estimating monetary policy effects when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1395-1408, October.
  15. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
  16. Allan H. Meltzer, 2014. "Slow Recovery with Low Inflation," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 8 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  17. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 323, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  18. Putkuri, Hanna, 2003. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission : The role of national financial systems," Research Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland.
  19. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
  20. repec:kie:kieliw:919 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Oda, Nobuyuki & Okina, Kunio, 2001. "Further Monetary Easing Policies under the Non-negativity Constraints of Nominal Interest Rates: Summary of the Discussion Based on Japan's Experience," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 323-360, February.
  22. Bruno Coric & Lena Malesevic Perovic & Vladimir Simic, 2015. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Monetary Policy Effects on Prices," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 377-390, October.
  23. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
  24. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2013. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 13-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  25. Allan H. Meltzer, 1999. "Commentary : monetary policy at zero inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-276.
  26. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Banca centrale e innovazione finanziaria. Una rassegna della letteratura recente," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(220), pages 345-385.
  27. Goodfriend, Marvin, 2000. "Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1007-1035, November.
  28. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  29. Brisne J. V. Céspedes & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Alexis Maka & Mário J. C. Mendonça, 2015. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0160, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  30. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
  31. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Siebert, Horst, 1999. "Some lessons from the Japanese bubble," Kiel Working Papers 919, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  33. Ana María Iregui & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005254, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  34. Marvin Goodfriend, 2005. "Narrow money, broad money, and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 276-303.
  35. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Philip & Wilson, John O.S. & Tavakoli, Manouche, 2007. "European banking: An overview," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1911-1935, July.
  36. Hans Genberg, 2008. "The changing nature of financial intermediation and its implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 100-113 Bank for International Settlements.
  37. Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "The Future of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(s1), pages 23-36, 09.
  38. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Hendricks, Torben W., 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 102, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  39. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "France; Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Notes—Stress Testing Methodology and Results; Integration into Global Financial Markets; and Public Intervention in Financial Markets—Obstac," IMF Staff Country Reports 05/185, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Geldpolitik und Vermögensmärkte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 56-65.
  41. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha, 2015. "Monetary policy and stock prices – Cross-country evidence from cointegrated VAR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 254-265.
  42. repec:zbw:rwirep:0435 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Girardin, Eric & Moussa, Zakaria, 2011. "Quantitative easing works: Lessons from the unique experience in Japan 2001â2006," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 461-495, October.
  44. Booth, Philip, 2014. "Monetary policy, asset prices and financial institutions," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 9-41, March.
  45. Zhang, Chengsi, 2013. "Money, housing, and inflation in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 75-87.
  46. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 4, pages 171-220 Central Bank of Chile.
  47. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  48. repec:rwi:repape:0435 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Issing, Otmar, 2014. "Forward guidance: A new challenge for central banks," SAFE White Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe.
  50. Amjad Ali & M. Ali Choudhary & Shah Hussain & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: an Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0212, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  51. Aschheim, Joseph & Tavlas, George S., 2004. "Academic exclusion: the case of Alexander Del Mar," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 31-60, March.
  52. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
  53. KOC, Umit & SAHIN, Hasan, 2014. "Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: Firma Bilanço Kanalı ve Türkiye
    [Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Firm Balance Sheet Channel and Turkey]
    ," MPRA Paper 71979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Gustavo A. Marrero, 2004. "Component versus Tradicional Models to Forecast Quarterly National Account Aggregates: a Monte Carlo Experiment," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0410, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  55. Pelinescu, Elena, 2012. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Romania. Insights into the Economic Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, September.
  56. Moses M. Sichei, 2005. "Bank-Lending Channel in South Africa: Bank-Level Dynamic Panel Date Analysis," Working Papers 200510, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  57. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
  58. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Functions and Transmission Mechanisms: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 001-020 Central Bank of Chile.
  59. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Munich Reprints in Economics 19757, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  60. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192 Bank for International Settlements.
  61. Belke, Ansgar & Wiedmann, Marcel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 435, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  62. Gustavo Junca, 2006. "Modelo De Zonas Objetivo Para La Tasa De Interés De Corto Plazo," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
  63. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "US Monetary Policy and Commodity Sector Prices," Working Papers 2014-438, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  64. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Money and banks: Some theory and empirical evidence for Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,17, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  65. repec:rwi:repape:0102 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
  68. M. Ali Choudhary & Amjad Ali & Shah Hussain & Vasco J Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from a Developing Economy," Working Papers id:4771, eSocialSciences.
  69. SZCZERBOWICZ, Urszula, 2014. "The ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have they lowered market borrowing costs for banks and governments?," Discussion papers 14008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  70. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2012. "A monetary model of China–US trade relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 233-238.
  71. Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011. "Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?," Discussion Papers 11-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  72. J M. Berk, 2001. "New Economy, Old Central Banks? An overview of monetary transmission in a new economic environment," MEB Series (discontinued) 2001-5, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  73. Iwata, Shigeru & Wu, Shu, 2012. "A Note On Foreign Exchange Interventions At Zero Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 802-817, November.
  74. repec:rwi:repape:0037 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
  76. BIRMAN Andrei, 2012. "A VAR Analysis on the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Romania," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
  77. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 971, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  78. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
  79. Catherine Bruno, 1997. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et régime de changes : une comparaison France - Allemagne - Etats-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 139-164.
  80. repec:zbw:rwirep:0102 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. van Zandweghe, Willem & Martinez Rico, Felipe & Gottschalk, Jan, 2000. "Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone," Kiel Working Papers 984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  82. Martínez-García, Miguel Ángel. & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco. & Trejo-García, José Carlos., 2013. "Un análisis de la política monetaria en México y sus efectos en variables reales, 1995-2011: un modelo VAR en un ambiente browniano," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 77-103, primer se.
  83. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Shinichiro Watanabe & Kentaro Yoshimura, 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap: What Have We Learned, and to What End?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 471-508, December.
  84. Denisova Irina, 2000. "Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission: the Role of Industrial Interenterprise Arrears," EERC Working Paper Series 99-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  85. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2012. "Estimating Impacts of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand in India," MPRA Paper 50902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Bean, Charles & Larsen, Jens D. J. & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 0113, European Central Bank.
  87. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2005:i:2:b:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  88. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Money, Stock Prices and Central Banks – Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," ROME Working Papers 201308, ROME Network.
  89. L. Gambacorta & B. Hofmann & G. Peersman, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/765, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  90. Allan H. Meltzer, 2014. "Current Lessons from the Past: How the Fed Repeats Its History," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(3), pages 519-539, Fall.
  91. Eduard Berenguer, 2009. "Financial Stability and Central Banking," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, ELSEVIER, vol. 32(88), pages 283-298, Enero-Abr.
  92. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Jain, Rajeev, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box," MPRA Paper 50903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Comment on: The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1061-1070, July.
  94. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 231-252, June.
  95. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 15-26.
  97. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  98. Allan H. Meltzer, 2013. "What's Wrong with the Fed? What Would Restore Independence?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(3), pages 401-416, Fall.
  99. Bruno Ćorić & Lena Malešević Perović & Vladimir Šimić, 2016. "Openness and the Strength of Monetary Transmission: International Evidence," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(4), pages 639-659, December.
  100. de Ruiter, Marcel & Smant, David J. C., 1999. "The Household Balance Sheet and Durable Consumer Expenditures: An Empirical Investigation for The Netherlands, 1972-93," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 243-274, March.
  101. Anupam Nanda & Jia-Huey Yeh, 2016. "International Transmission Mechanisms and Contagion in Housing Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 1005-1024, 07.
  102. Süleyman DEĞİRMEN & Filiz ÖZAĞ, 2007. "Banka Sermaye Kanalı Mevcudiyeti: Türk Bankacılık Sektörü İçin Bir Analiz," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 18(63), pages 29-54.
  103. Jeremy Lawson & Daniel Rees, 2008. "A Sectoral Model of the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  104. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2004. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and the United States," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Antonio Ahumada & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking Market Structure and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 3, pages 059-120 Central Bank of Chile.
  105. Athanasenas, Athanasios L., 2010. "Credit, income, and causality: A contemporary co-integration analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 194-205, February.
  106. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
  107. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
  108. Ramos, Raul & Clar, Miquel & Surinach, Jordi, 1999. "EMU: some unanswered questions," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa220, European Regional Science Association.
  109. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002.
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