Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?
This paper compares the financial destabilizing effects of excess liquidity versus credit growth, in relation to house price bubbles and real economic booms. The analysis uses a cointegrated VAR model based on US data from 1987 to 2010, with a particulary focus on the period preceding the global financial crisis. Consistent with monetarist theory, the results suggest a stable money supply-demand relation in the period in question. However, the implied excess liquidity only resulted in financial destabilizing effect after year 2000. Meanwhile, the results also point to persistent cycles of real house prices and leverage, which appear to have been driven by real credit shocks, in accordance with post-Keynesian theories on financial instability. Importantly, however, these mechanisms of credit growth and excess liquidity are found to be closely related. In regards to the global financial crisis, a prolonged credit cycle starting in the mid-1990s - and possibly initiated subprime mortgage innovations - appears to have created a long-run housing bubble. Further fuelled by expansionary monetary policy and excess liquidity, the bubble accelerated in period following the dot-com crash, until it finally burst in 2007.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark|
Phone: (+45) 35 32 30 10
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011.
"How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Gary Gorton, 2008.
"The Panic of 2007,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2372, Yale School of Management.
- Allan H. Meltzer, 1995. "Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 49-72, Fall.
- Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56.
- Kaufmann, Sylvia & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2007.
"The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US,"
Working Paper Series
0816, European Central Bank.
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "The Role Of Credit Aggregates And Asset Prices In The Transmission Mechanism: A Comparison Between The Euro Area And The Usa," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 345-377, 07.
- Elias Oikarinen, 2008.
"Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case,"
29, Aboa Centre for Economics.
- Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2004.
"Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,"
Princeton University Press,
edition 1, number 8973.
- Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
- Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
- Ferri, Piero & Minsky, Hyman P., 1992.
"Market processes and thwarting systems,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 79-91, June.
- Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008.
"House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy,"
Working Paper Series
0888, European Central Bank.
- Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011.
"Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
- John B. Carlson & Benjamin D. Keen, 1996. "MZM: a monetary aggregate for the 1990s?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-23.
- Gimeno, Ricardo & Martínez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.