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Structural Change, Aggregate Demand and Employment Dynamics in the OECD, 1970-2010

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  • Jochen Hartwig

Abstract

The paper combines Baumol's model of structural change with a model of aggregate demand growth in the Keynesian-Kaleckian tradition to predict the dynamics of aggregate employment. The model for the demand regime is estimated with - and Baumol's model for the productivity regime is calibrated on - OECD data. The trajectory for employment predicted by the combination of the two models tracks the actual employment dynamics in the OECD over the period 1970-2010 remarkably well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen Hartwig, 2013. "Structural Change, Aggregate Demand and Employment Dynamics in the OECD, 1970-2010," KOF Working papers 13-343, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:13-343
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-009992260
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Demand growth; Productivity growth; Employment dynamics; OECD panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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