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The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics

Author

Listed:
  • Ray C. Fair
  • Arnold Zellner (ary)

Abstract

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be a serious possibility. Macroeconomics seems to be moving away from its traditional empirical basis, which is sad. This paper argues for returning to the path that was abandoned by most macroeconomists around 1970, namely the specification and testing of structural macroeconometric models.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair & Arnold Zellner (ary), 1992. "The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 133-157.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlpr:y:1992:p:133-157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chow, G.C., 1993. "Statistical Estimation and Testing of a Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 365, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
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    5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
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    9. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
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    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
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    14. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwig, Jochen, 2015. "Structural change, aggregate demand and employment dynamics in the OECD, 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 36-45.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An optimizing model for monetary policy analysis: can habit formation help?," Working Papers 98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-50.
    4. Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996. "The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles ; Keynesian economics;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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