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The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics

  • Ray C. Fair
  • Arnold Zellner (ary)

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be a serious possibility. Macroeconomics seems to be moving away from its traditional empirical basis, which is sad. This paper argues for returning to the path that was abandoned by most macroeconomists around 1970, namely the specification and testing of structural macroeconometric models.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1992)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 133-157

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlpr:y:1992:p:133-157
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  1. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  2. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Chow, G.C., 1993. "Statistical Estimation and Testing of a Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 365, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1981. "Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses: Some Further Results," Working Papers 430, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Laidler, David & Bentley, Brian, 1983. "A Small Macro-Model of the Post-War United States," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 51(4), pages 317-40, December.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  8. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-81, June.
  9. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  10. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
  13. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  15. David Laidler & Ben S. Bernanke (ary), 1992. "The cycle before new-classical economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 85-117.
  16. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  18. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 480, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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