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An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

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  • Oya Celasun
  • Mr. Mangal Goswami

Abstract

This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a structural break in the data. A long-run money market equilibrium condition is identified and the short-run behavior of the inflation, measured in terms of non-administered component of the consumer price index (CPI) is modeled conditional on the disequilibria in the money market. Estimation results indicate that the stabilization of the exchange rate on account of strong oil revenues during 2000/01-2001/02 buoyed the demand for domestic money and contributed to the decline in inflation. Tests of model stability do not point to a structural shift in the inflation equation during the period of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Oya Celasun & Mr. Mangal Goswami, 2002. "An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 2002/205, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mrs. O. Liu, 2000. "Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/127, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    2. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 295-324, Autumn.
    3. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
    4. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "How Useful is Monetary Econometrics in Low-Income Countries? T+L3104he Case of Money Demand and the Multipliers in Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 2005/178, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Amin Yousefi-Sahzabi & Kyuro Sasaki & Hossein Yousefi & Yuichi Sugai, 2011. "CO 2 emission and economic growth of Iran," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 63-82, January.
    6. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    7. Mr. Saade Chami & Selim Elekdag & Todd Schneider & Nabil Ben Ltaifa, 2007. "Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen," IMF Working Papers 2007/006, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bonato , Leo & Jbili , Abdelali, 2009. "Monetary Policy in Iran: The Challenge of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 5(2), pages 129-148, April.
    9. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Bonato Leo, 2008. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 41-58, January.
    11. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    12. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.

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