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Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

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  • Mr. Leo Bonato

Abstract

This paper looks at the determinants of inflation in Iran. Unlike the traditional estimates of the demand function for real money balances, the approach followed here focuses on the relationship between nominal variables and inflation. The model estimates are used to address the questions raised by the decline in inflation that occurred up to the first half of 2006, looking at the structural stability of the estimated relationships and the ability of the model to predict inflation at the end of the sample. The estimates confirm the strong relationship between money and inflation when M1 is used, with no evidence of a structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Leo Bonato, 2007. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 2007/119, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
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    3. Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 1999. "Common Trends and Structural Change: A Dynamic Macro Model for the Pre- and Postrevolution Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 1999/082, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Mr. Mangal Goswami & Oya Celasun, 2002. "An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 2002/205, International Monetary Fund.
    6. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2010/135, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    3. Amr Hosny, 2013. "Inflation In Egypt: Internal Or External Driven?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-15.
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    5. Magda Kandil & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the Iranian economy in the era of sanctions," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 78-98, January.
    6. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Vafa Moayedi, 2013. "Reassessing The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policies In Iran: The St. Louis Equation Revisited," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 123-141, December.
    8. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 141-158, January.
    9. Moayedi, Vafa, 2012. "Detecting Islamic Calendar Effects on U.S. Meat Consumption: Is the Muslim Population Larger than Widely Assumed?," MPRA Paper 41554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ben Ali Mohamed Sami & Sassi Seifallah, 2016. "The corruption-inflation nexus: evidence from developed and developing countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 125-144, January.
    11. Hamidreza Ghorbani Dastgerdi, 2020. "Inflation Theories and Inflation Persistence in Iran," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 2008/193, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 295-324, Autumn.
    14. Dario Laudati & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 271-294, April.
    15. Monireh Motamedi & Ghazaleh Mohammadian, 2014. "Survey of Money- Output Causality: Case Study of Iran, Based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(3), pages 115-132, Autumn.
    16. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    17. Maryam Hosseinzadeh & Saeed Daei-Karimzadeh, 2017. "Investigate the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Demand for Life Insurance in Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 166-174.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.

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