IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/33.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • André Minella

Abstract

This paper investigates monetary policy and basic macroeconomic relation-ships involving output, inflation rate, interest rate, and money in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation, it compares three different periods: moderately increasing inflation (1975-1985), high inflation (1985-1994), and low inflation (1994-2000). The main results are the following: (1) monetary policy shocks have significant effects on output; (2) monetary policy shocks do not induce a reduction in the inflation rate in the first two periods, but there are indications that they have gained power to affect prices after the Real Plan was launched; (3) monetary policy does not usually respond rapidly or actively to inflation-rate and output innovations; (4) in the recent period, the interest rate responds intensely to financial crises; (5) positive interest-rate shocks are accompanied by a decline in money in all the three periods; (6) the degree of inflation persistence is substantially lower in the recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • André Minella, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR Estimation," Working Papers Series 33, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps33.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    3. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Ivan Castelar, 2008. "Nonlinearities and Price Puzzle in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 9(1), pages 47-62.
    2. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Maria Carolina da Silva Leme, 2008. "Inflation and Interest Rate: Which one is more persistent in Brazil?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181224190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    4. Luis A.V. Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 5, pages 105-144 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    6. Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti & Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2010. "Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 284-295, January.
    7. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    8. Garcia, Marcio Gomes Pinto & Guillen, Diogo Abry, 2011. "Dispersão na fixação de preços no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(1), March.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low?," IMF Working Papers 08/288, International Monetary Fund.
    10. A. R. Pagan & Douglas Laxton & Luis Catão, 2008. "Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter; The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 08/191, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
    12. Miriam Oliveira Silva Português & Antonio Luis Licha, 2016. "Reserve Requirements As A Macroprudential Instrument In Brazil And Colombia: Some Empirical Evidence," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 059, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo). General contact details of provider: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.