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George Saravelos

Personal Details

First Name:George
Middle Name:
Last Name:Saravelos
RePEc Short-ID:psa831


Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University

Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States)

79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
RePEc:edi:ksharus (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

Jump to: Working papers

Working papers

  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.


Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2012. "Responses of Monetary Authorities in Emerging Economies to International Financial Crises: What Do We Really Know?," Post-Print hal-01385893, HAL.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012. "From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, September.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009884, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2013. "Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 9764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. José De Gregorio, 2011. "Acumulación de Reservas Internacionales en Economías Emergentes," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 40, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    8. Jahjah, Samir & Wei, Bin & Yue, Zhanwei, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 74924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bianchi, Javier & Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2013. "International reserves and rollover risk," Working Paper 13-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 01 Jun 2013.
    10. Török, Ádám, 2011. "Intézményépítés a túlzott államadósság elleni védekezés érdekében
      [Building institutions to guard against excessive state debt]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 577-591.
    11. Enrique Alberola & Aitor Erce & José Maria Serena, 2014. "International Reserves and Gross Capital Flows Dynamics," DOCUMENTOS DE DISCUSION FLAR 011048, FONDO LATINO AMERICANO DE RESERVAS - FLAR.
    12. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    13. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2012. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Borradores de Economia 723, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-144.
    15. Sophocles Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2013. "Liquidity And The Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence From The Greek Banking Sector," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 109-126, October -.
    16. Houda Rharrabti Zaid, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Francisco Ceballos & Tatiana Didier & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2012. "Financial Globalization in Emerging Countries : Diversification vs. Offshoring," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23350, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    20. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Shoham Amir & Pelzman Joseph, 2011. "A Review of the Crises," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, July.
    23. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    25. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries," Working Papers 2011/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    26. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Bragoli, Daniela & Ganugi, Piero & Ianulardo, Giancarlo, 2009. "Gini’s Transvariation Analysis:An Application on Financial Crises in Developing Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 15963, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    28. Ocampo, José Antonio, 2011. "Macroeconomy for development: countercyclical policies and production sector transformation," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    29. Harrison, Ann & Sepulveda, Claudia, 2011. "Learning from developing country experience : growth and economic thought before and after the 2008-09 crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5752, The World Bank.
    30. Chiţu, Livia, 2016. "Reserve accumulation, inflation and moral hazard: Evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 1880, European Central Bank.
    31. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Stijn Claessens & Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: Using Firm-level Data to Identify Transmission Channels," NBER Working Papers 17360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430, April.
    34. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Fragilidad Bancaria en Colombia: Un Análisis Basado en las Hojas de Balance," Borradores de Economia 813, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    35. Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 11/100, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Ceballos, Francisco & Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio, 2013. "Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: What Did Emerging Economies Do Differently?," Working Papers 2013-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    37. Gurnain Pasricha & Tom Roberts & Ian Christensen & Brad Howell, 2013. "Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2013(Autumn), pages 10-19.
    38. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011145, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    39. Joon-Ho Hahm & Hyun Song Shin & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "Non-Core Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability," NBER Working Papers 18428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Current account balance and dollar standard: Exploring the linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-94.
    41. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Enter the dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific equity markets, 1995–2010," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 521-541.
    42. Richard Pomfret, 2012. "The Post-2007 Crises and Europe's Place in the Global Economy," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 439, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    43. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    44. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    45. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2012. "International Reserves and the Composition of Equity Capital Inflows," Working Papers 90, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    46. Kateřina Duspivová, 2011. "Role zahraničního vlastnictví z hlediska tvorby pracovních míst a fluktuace zaměstnanců
      [The Role of the Foreign Ownership in Job and Employee Flows]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(6), pages 759-774.
    47. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2012. "Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2017-2037.
    48. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    49. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2017. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-18, CIRANO.
    50. Enrique Alberola & Ángel Estrada & Daniel Santabárbara, 2014. "Growth and imbalances in Spain: a reassessment of the output gap," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 333-356, August.
    51. Arduini, Tiziano & De Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Del Bello, Carlo Leone, 2011. "Currency Crises During the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," MPRA Paper 36528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2016. "International Reserves, External Debt Maturity, and the Reinforcement Effect for Financial Stability," ifo Working Paper Series 211, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    53. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    54. Benmelech, Efraim & Dvir, Eyal, 2013. "Does Short-Term Debt Increase Vulnerability to Crisis? Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 485-494.
    55. Jon Frost & Ayako Saiki, 2013. "Early warning for currency crises: what is the role of financial openness?," DNB Working Papers 373, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    56. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison, 2012. "International Financial Markets and Transmission of the Crisis: Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves," Chapters,in: Global Economic Crisis, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    57. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2011. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," CEPR Discussion Papers 8518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Becker, Torbjörn, 2012. "Crisis Prevention and Management - What Worked in the 2008/2009 Crisis?," SITE Working Paper Series 15, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    59. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2011. "International Reserves and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Richard Pomfret, 2011. "Global Crises, Fiscal Imbalances and Global Instability: Interests and Reactions of Asian Economies," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-33, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    61. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ahmed, Khalid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: The importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-232.
    62. Mary Cussen, 2015. "Deciphering Ireland’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Indicators: Statistical Considerations," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 293-313.
    63. Saiki, Ayako & Chantapacdepong, Pornpinun & Volz, Ulrich, 2016. "Dealing with Quantitative Easing Spillovers in East Asia: The Role of Institutions and Macroprudential Policy," ADBI Working Papers 604, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    64. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    65. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2012. "An Early-warning and Dynamic Forecasting Framework of Default Probabilities for the Macroprudential Policy Indicators Arsenal," BCL working papers 75, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    66. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 19-37.
    67. ATI Abdessatar & BEN JAZIA Rachida, 2013. "Institutional Quality And Financial Stress: Experience From Emerging Country," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(3), pages 5-20, December.
    68. Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
    69. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2013. "Banking Systemic Vulnerabilities: A Tail-risk Dynamic CIMDO Approach," BCL working papers 82, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    70. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    71. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2013. "Adjustment mechanisms and exchange rate regimes in 2004 new EU members during the financial crisis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, March.
    72. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici, 2015. "Exchange Market Pressure in OECD and Emerging Economies: Domestic vs. External Factors and Capital Flows in the Old and New Normal," NBER Working Papers 21662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Comment on "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 351-355 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 112-117 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    75. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2014. "Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between a Central Bank of Sovereign Wealth Fund," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 129-161, September.
    76. Pomfret, Richard, 2014. "European crises and the Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 71-81.
    77. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2010. "Macroeconomic Factors and Micro-Level Bank Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 3194, CESifo Group Munich.
    78. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    79. M. Ayhan Kose, 2011. "Review of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff”," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1106, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    80. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "Growth effect of aid and its volatility: An individual country study in South Asian economies," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.
    81. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    82. Feryel Ouerghi, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis: Did Exchange Rate Politics Help Emerging Countries To Be More Resilient," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 949-963.
    83. Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 1473, European Central Bank.
    84. Enrique Alberola & Ángel Estrada & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "Growth beyond imbalances. Sustainable growth rates and output gap reassessment," Working Papers 1313, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    85. Bilge Erten & José Antonio Ocampo, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Regulations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 193-240, June.
    86. Tiziano Arduini & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Carlo L. Del Bello, 2012. "Balance-of-Payments Crises During the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 517-534, August.
    87. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    88. Jose De Gregorio, 2013. "Resilience in Latin America; Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies," IMF Working Papers 13/259, International Monetary Fund.
    89. Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2012. "A makrogazdaság fenntartható finanszírozási pályájának elérhetőségéről
      [Achieving a sustainable financing path for the macro economy]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 781-797.
    90. Bussière, M., 2013. "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers 420, Banque de France.
    91. Mulder, Christian & Perrelli, Roberto & Rocha, Manuel Duarte, 2012. "External vulnerability, balance sheet effects, and the institutional framework — Lessons from the Asian crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 16-28.
    92. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2017. "Systemic Financial Sector and Sovereign Risks," BCL working papers 109, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    93. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2016. "Tracking Changes in the Intensity of Financial Sector's Systemic Risk," BCL working papers 102, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    94. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    95. Alessi, Lucia & Antunes, Antonio & Babecky, Jan & Baltussen, Simon & Behn, Markus & Bonfim, Diana & Bush, Oliver & Detken, Carsten & Frost, Jon & Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Havranek, Tomas & Joy, Mark & Kau, 2015. "Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network," MPRA Paper 62194, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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