Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises
In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012
Monitoring a suitable set of early warning indicators is crucial for the optimal timing of macroprudential measures aimed at reducing the risk of financial crises or at least mitigating their impact on the economy. This article sets out to identify the indicators that should be monitored and to show how to overcome some problems in identifying them. As it is important to focus on robust indicators that are independent of the choice of model, the article combines two mutually complementary crisis measures: the timing of crisis occurrence and the intensity of the impact of crises on the economy. The article goes on to demonstrate that it is appropriate to rely on a system of several complementary models. For a set of 40 advanced EU and OECD countries, our two-model system identifies rising house prices and external debt as the best performing early warning indicators. Global variables, such as the volume of credit, global GDP and crude oil prices, form another useful set of indicators.
|This chapter was published in: Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, , chapter Thematic Article 2, pages 112-117, 2012.|
|This item is provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes with number fsr1112/2.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009.
"Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning,"
NBER Working Papers
15357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," CEPR Discussion Papers 7354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, . "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," Working Papers 6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999.
"Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress,"
IMF Working Papers
99/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009.
"Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Theoharry Grammatikos & Robert Vermeulen, 2011.
"Transmission of the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises to the EMU: Stock Prices, CDS Spreads and Exchange Rates,"
DNB Working Papers
287, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
- Theoharry Grammatikos & Robert Vermeulen, 2010. "Transmission of the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises to the EMU: Stock Prices, CDS Spreads and Exchange Rates," LSF Research Working Paper Series 10-13, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
- Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1112/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.