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Assessing financial stability risks from the real estate market in Italy: an update

Author

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  • Federica Ciocchetta

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Wanda Cornacchia

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We provide an update of the analytical framework to assess financial stability risks arising from the real estate sector in Italy. The enhancement concerns the definition of a new vulnerability indicator, measured in terms of the flow of total non-performing loans (NPLs) and not, as done previously, in terms of bad loans only. We focus separately on households (as an approximation for residential real estate, RRE) and on firms engaged in construction, management and investment services in the real estate sector (as an approximation for commercial real estate, CRE). Two early warning models are estimated using the new vulnerability indicator for RRE and CRE, respectively, as dependent variable. Both models exhibit good forecasting performances: the median predictions fit well the new vulnerability indicators in out-of-sample forecasts. Overall, models’ projections indicate that potential risks for banks stemming from the real estate sector will remain contained in the next few quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Federica Ciocchetta & Wanda Cornacchia, 2019. "Assessing financial stability risks from the real estate market in Italy: an update," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_493_19
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2019-0493/QEF_493_19.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Federica Ciocchetta & Wanda Cornacchia & Roberto Felici & Michele Loberto, 2016. "Assessing financial stability risks from the real estate market in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 323, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate markets; early warning models; bayesian model averaging; banking crises;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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