IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v50y2016i4d10.1007_s00181-015-0977-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform

Author

Listed:
  • Regina T. Riphahn

    (University of Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Christoph Wunder

    (University of Halle-Wittenberg)

Abstract

We study state dependence in welfare receipt and investigate whether welfare transitions changed after a welfare reform. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply dynamic multinomial logit estimators and find that state dependence in welfare receipt is not a central feature of the German welfare system. We find that welfare transitions changed after the reform: Transitions from welfare to employment became more likely and persistence in welfare and inactivity declined. We observe a large relative increase in transitions from employment to welfare. Immigrants’ responsiveness to the labor market situation increased after the reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:50:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-015-0977-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0977-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-015-0977-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-015-0977-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fortin, Bernard & Lacroix, Guy & Drolet, Simon, 2004. "Welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells: evidence from a natural experiment in Canada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1495-1520, July.
    2. Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia & Skrondal, Anders, 2013. "Avoiding biased versions of Wooldridge’s simple solution to the initial conditions problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 346-349.
    3. Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    4. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2011. "Immigrant–Native Differences in Welfare Participation: The Role of Entry and Exit Rates," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 412-442, July.
    5. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304, December.
    6. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226726281 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2014. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Britain," Research in Labor Economics, in: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence, volume 39, pages 41-79, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. Schnabel Claus, 2016. "United, Yet Apart? A Note on Persistent Labour Market Differences between Western and Eastern Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 157-179, March.
    9. Alan Barrett & Yvonne McCarthy, 2008. "Immigrants and welfare programmes: exploring the interactions between immigrant characteristics, immigrant welfare dependence, and welfare policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 543-560, Autumn.
    10. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3765, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Marco Caliendo & Jens Hogenacker, 2012. "The German labor market after the Great Recession: successful reforms and future challenges," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Erdem, Tulin & Sun, Baohong, 2001. "Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 142-152, April.
    13. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    14. Christoph Wunder & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit amongst natives and immigrants," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 580-604.
    15. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
    16. Joachim R. Frick & Olaf Groh-Samberg, 2007. "To Claim or Not to Claim: Estimating Non-take-up of Social Assistance in Germany and the Role of Measurement Error," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 734, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    18. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    19. René Fahr & Uwe Sunde, 2009. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed‐Up the Matching Process? A Macro‐Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 284-316, August.
    20. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "Der Rückgang der Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland: Ein Erfolg der Hartz-Reformen oder konjunktureller Effekt?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(1), pages 89-121.
    21. Karin Edmark, 2009. "Migration Effects of Welfare Benefit Reform," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 511-526, September.
    22. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2013. "Patterns of Welfare Dependence before and after a Reform: Evidence from First Generation Immigrants and Natives in Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(3), pages 437-459, September.
    23. Joachim R. Frick & Henning Lohmann (Eds.), 2010. "Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP, v26, 1984-2009)," Data Documentation 52, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Bernhard Boockmann & Stephan L. Thomsen & Thomas Walter & Christian Göbel & Martin Huber, 2015. "Should Welfare Administration be Centralized or Decentralized? Evidence from a Policy Experiment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(1), pages 13-42, February.
    25. Victoria Prowse, 2012. "Modeling Employment Dynamics With State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 411-431, April.
    26. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    27. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
    28. Dietz, Barbara, 1999. "Ethnic German Immigration from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to Germany: the Effects of Migrant Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 68, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    29. Schneider, Hilmar, 2012. "Wie nachhaltig ist das deutsche Jobwunder? Eine Reformbilanz," IZA Standpunkte 51, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. Marianne P. Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2010. "The State of Social Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 71-147.
    31. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio & Elizabeth E. Davis & Laura S. Connolly, 2000. "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 570-586.
    32. Hilary W. Hoynes & Kenneth Y. Chay & Dean Hyslop, 2004. "True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis," Working Papers 533, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    33. Huber Martin & Wunsch Conny & Lechner Michael & Walter Thomas, 2011. "Do German Welfare-to-Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 182-204, May.
    34. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    35. Hilary W. Hoynes & Kenneth Y. Chay & Dean Hyslop, 2004. "True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis," Working Papers 2, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    36. René Fahr & Uwe Sunde, 2009. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed‐Up the Matching Process? A Macro‐Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 284-316, August.
    37. Marianne Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2010. "The State of the Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era," NBER Working Papers 16504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe‐Hesketh, 2009. "Prediction in multilevel generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(3), pages 659-687, June.
    39. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    40. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal & Andrew Pickles, 2004. "GLLAMM Manual," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1160, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    41. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2009. "The dynamics of immigrant welfare and labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(4), pages 941-970, October.
    42. Caliendo, Marco & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2008. "Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns," IZA Discussion Papers 3900, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    43. Riphahn, Regina T, 2001. "Rational Poverty or Poor Rationality? The Take-Up Study of Social Assistance Benefits," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 379-398, September.
    44. Arent Stefan & Nagl Wolfgang, 2013. "Unemployment Compensation and Wages: Evidence from the German Hartz Reforms," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(4), pages 450-466, August.
    45. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    46. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Jürgen Wiemers, 2012. "A new targeting: a new take-up?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 565-580, October.
    47. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom & Xingfei Liu & Xuelin Zhang, 2014. "State Dependence in Social Assistance Receipt in Canada," Research in Labor Economics, in: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence, volume 39, pages 81-105, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    48. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
    49. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Katrin Hohmeyer & Stefan Schwarz, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    3. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Refugee resettlement, redistribution and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 89-98.
    4. Jennifer Feichtmayer & Regina T. Riphahn, 2023. "Intergenerational Transmission of Welfare Benefit Receipt: Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 10835, CESifo.
    5. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    6. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.
    7. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:52:i:1:p:art.16 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schank, Thorsten & Schwarz, Stefan, 2021. "Do Supplementary Jobs for Welfare Recipients Increase the Chance of Welfare Exit? Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14268, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Hohmeyer, Katrin & Schwarz, Stefan, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 52(1), pages .16(1-21).
    10. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Hohmeyer, Katrin & Schwarz, Stefan, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 52(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Jennifer Feichtmayer & Regina T. Riphahn, 2023. "Intergenerational Transmission of Welfare Benefit Receipt: Evidence from Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1201, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. Ayşe Savaş & Julide Yildirim, 2017. "Education, Social Assistance And Employment Dynamics: A Panel Data Approach," EcoMod2017 10747, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wunder, Christoph & Riphahn, Regina, 2013. "Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79715, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    3. Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    4. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    5. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "State dependence in Swedish social assistance," Discussion Papers 19, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    6. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schank, Thorsten & Schwarz, Stefan, 2021. "Do Supplementary Jobs for Welfare Recipients Increase the Chance of Welfare Exit? Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14268, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "Never give up? The persistence of welfare participation in Sweden," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Daniel S. J. Lechmann & Christoph Wunder, 2017. "The Dynamics of Solo Self-Employment: Persistence and Transition to Employership," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 932, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Lechmann, Daniel S. J. & Wunder, Christoph, 2016. "The dynamics of solo self-employment: Persistence and transition to employership," Discussion Papers 98, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    10. Schnitzlein, Daniel D. & Stephani, Jens, 2016. "Locus of Control and low-wage mobility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-177.
    11. Kerstin Bruckmeier & Katrin Hohmeyer & Stefan Schwarz, 2018. "Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Andreas Knabe & Alexander Plum, 2013. "Low-wage Jobs — Springboard to High-paid Ones?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(3), pages 310-330, September.
    14. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Cuesta, Maite Blázquez & Budría, Santiago, 2017. "Unemployment persistence: How important are non-cognitive skills?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-37.
    16. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.
    17. Bruckmeier, Kerstin & Wiemers, Jürgen, 2016. "Differences in welfare take-up between immigrants and natives : a microsimulation study," IAB-Discussion Paper 201608, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    18. Coban, Mustafa, 2017. "Wage mobility, wage inequality, and tasks: Empirical evidence from Germany, 1984-2014," Discussion Paper Series 139, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    19. Okamura, Kazuaki & Islam, Nizamul, 2021. "Multinomial employment dynamics with state dependence and heterogeneity: Evidence from Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Nisar Ahmad, 2014. "State Dependence in Unemployment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 93-106.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social assistance; State dependence; Unemployment benefit II; Immigration; Dynamic multinomial logit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:50:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-015-0977-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.