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Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system

  • Wunder, Christoph
  • Riphahn, Regina

We study state dependence in the German welfare system and compare transition patterns before and after recent reforms of the welfare system (Hartz Reforms). Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply dynamic multinomial logit estimators and find that welfare transitions have generally not changed significantly after the reform: the probabilities of welfare entry and welfare exit increased only slightly whereas the probability of welfare persistence declined somewhat. After the reform, welfare persistence and welfare-to-employment transitions of immigrants became more responsive to the labor market situation.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79715/1/VfS_2013_pid_598.pdf
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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79715.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79715
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. René Fahr & Uwe Sunde, 2009. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up the Matching Process? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 284-316, 08.
  2. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  3. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zhang, Xuelin, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "Der Rückgang der Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland: Ein Erfolg der Hartz-Reformen oder konjunktureller Effekt?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(1), pages 89-121.
  5. Joachim R. Frick & Olaf Groh-Samberg, 2007. "To Claim or Not to Claim: Estimating Non-take-up of Social Assistance in Germany and the Role of Measurement Error," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 734, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Karin Edmark, 2009. "Migration Effects of Welfare Benefit Reform," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 511-526, 09.
  7. Alan Barrett & Yvonne McCarthy, 2008. "Immigrants and welfare programmes: exploring the interactions between immigrant characteristics, immigrant welfare dependence, and welfare policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 543-560, Autumn.
  8. H. W. Hoynes, . "Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1104-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  9. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2009. "Prediction in multilevel generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(3), pages 659-687.
  10. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio & Elizabeth E. Davis & Laura S. Connolly, 2000. "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 570-586.
  11. Marianne P. Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2010. "The State of Social Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 71-147.
  12. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?," NBER Working Papers 17187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  14. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
  15. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  16. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus, 2001. "The Dynamics of Immigrant Welfare and Labor Market Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 360, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Hilary W. Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers During Recessions?," NBER Working Papers 17951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Dietz, Barbara, 1999. "Ethnic German Immigration from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to Germany: the Effects of Migrant Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 68, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Victoria Prowse, 2007. "Modeling Employment Dynamics with State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 337, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  20. Riphahn, Regina T, 2001. "Rational Poverty or Poor Rationality? The Take-Up Study of Social Assistance Benefits," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 379-98, September.
  21. Stewart, Mark, 2006. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low-Wage Employment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 741, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  22. Joachim R. Frick & Olaf Groh-Samberg & Henning Lohmann, 2008. "Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel: (Up to Wave X, 2007)," Data Documentation 36, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  23. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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