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Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system

  • Wunder, Christoph
  • Riphahn, Regina

We study state dependence in the German welfare system and compare transition patterns before and after recent reforms of the welfare system (Hartz Reforms). Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply dynamic multinomial logit estimators and find that welfare transitions have generally not changed significantly after the reform: the probabilities of welfare entry and welfare exit increased only slightly whereas the probability of welfare persistence declined somewhat. After the reform, welfare persistence and welfare-to-employment transitions of immigrants became more responsive to the labor market situation.

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79715.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79715
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  1. René Fahr & Uwe Sunde, 2009. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up the Matching Process? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 284-316, 08.
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  4. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio & Elizabeth E. Davis & Laura S. Connolly, 2000. "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 570-586.
  5. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
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  7. Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "Der Rückgang der Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland: Ein Erfolg der Hartz-Reformen oder konjunktureller Effekt?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(1), pages 89-121.
  8. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
  9. Joachim R. Frick & Olaf Groh-Samberg & Henning Lohmann, 2008. "Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel: (Up to Wave X, 2007)," Data Documentation 36, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  11. Riphahn, Regina T, 2001. "Rational Poverty or Poor Rationality? The Take-Up Study of Social Assistance Benefits," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 379-98, September.
  12. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2009. "Prediction in multilevel generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(3), pages 659-687.
  13. Dietz, Barbara, 1999. "Ethnic German Immigration from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to Germany: the Effects of Migrant Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 68, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
  15. Marianne P. Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2010. "The State of Social Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 71-147.
  16. Barrett, Alan & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2008. "Immigrants and Welfare Programmes: Exploring the Interactions between Immigrant Characteristics, Immigrant Welfare Dependence and Welfare Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 3494, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Joachim R. Frick & Olaf Groh-Samberg, 2007. "To Claim or Not to Claim: Estimating Non-take-up of Social Assistance in Germany and the Role of Measurement Error," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 53, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  18. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus, 2001. "The Dynamics of Immigrant Welfare and Labor Market Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 360, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  20. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
  21. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP): Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  22. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zhang, Xuelin, 2006. "State Dependence in Canadian Welfare Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 2266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  23. Karin Edmark, 2009. "Migration Effects of Welfare Benefit Reform," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 511-526, 09.
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