IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cda/wpaper/2.html

True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hilary W. Hoynes
  • Kenneth Y. Chay
  • Dean Hyslop

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of true state dependence in welfare participationusing unique administrative data from California that is measured at the monthly frequency,which coincides with the welfare eligibility period and so is free of time aggregation bias. Theanalysis uses first- and second-order dynamic conditional logit models that non-parametricallycontrol for permanent unobserved heterogeneity to test for state dependence in welfare behavior.The second-order model also absorbs individual-specific first-order Markov chains, and providesa more robust test for state dependence in high frequency data. The results using the first-ordermodel show substantial first-order state dependence in monthly welfare participation. Absorbingheterogeneous first-order effects, the hypothesis of no second-order state dependence is alsoeasily rejected. This suggests that past welfare participation predicts future participation, givenunrestricted effects of both the present state and unobserved heterogeneity, and providessubstantive evidence of duration dependence at the individual level.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilary W. Hoynes & Kenneth Y. Chay & Dean Hyslop, 2004. "True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis," Working Papers 2, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/Vyn2yxV2Wt26pHtuoQVzVy2R/05-33.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix, 1997. "Welfare Benefits, Minimum Wage Rate and the Duration of Welfare Spells: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-25, CIRANO.
    2. Joel L. Horowitz, 1999. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Proportional Hazard Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1001-1028, September.
    3. Hoynes, Hilary & MaCurdy, Thomas, 1994. "Has the Decline in Benefits Shortened Welfare Spells?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 43-48, May.
    4. Bo E. Honoré, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 241-246.
    5. Gottschalk, Peter & Moffitt, Robert A, 1994. "Welfare Dependence: Concepts, Measures, and Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 38-42, May.
    6. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    7. G. Sandefur & S. Cook, "undated". "Duration of Public Assistance Receipt: Is Welfare a Trap?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1129-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
    9. Plant, Mark W, 1984. "An Empirical Analysis of Welfare Dependence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 673-684, September.
    10. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    12. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    13. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1993. "Simulation-based inference : A survey with special reference to panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 5-33, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 988-1012, September.
    2. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "Never give up? The persistence of welfare participation in Sweden," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Wunder, Christoph & Riphahn, Regina, 2013. "Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79715, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    5. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Honoré, Bo E., 2010. "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(2), December.
    6. Atasoy, Sibel & Mills, Bradford F. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2010. "The Dynamics of Food Stamp Program Participation: A Lagged Dependent Variable Approach," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60963, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Timothy J. Halliday, 2008. "Heterogeneity, state dependence and health," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 499-516, November.
    8. David Blau, 2003. "Child Care Subsidy Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 443-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    10. Mazzolari, Francesca & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2012. "Time Limits: The Effects on Welfare Use and Other Consumption-Smoothing Mechanisms," IZA Discussion Papers 6993, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Yi-Ping Tseng & Ha Vu & Roger Wilkins, 2006. "Dynamic Properties of Income Support Receipt in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Kristin F. Butcher & Robert J. LaLonde, 2006. "Female Offenders Use of Social Welfare Programs Before and After Jail and Prison: Does Prison Cause Welfare Dependency?," Working Papers 0718, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    13. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "State dependence in Swedish social assistance," Discussion Papers 19, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hilary W. Hoynes & Kenneth Y. Chay & Dean Hyslop, 2004. "True State Dependence In Monthly Welfare Participation:A Nonexperimental Analysis," Working Papers 533, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2007. "Barriers to employment and welfare dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 237-257.
    3. Shiu, Ji-Liang & Hu, Yingyao, 2013. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear dynamic panel data models with unobserved covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 116-131.
    4. Bonev, Petyo, 2020. "Nonparametric identification in nonseparable duration models with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Working Paper Series 2005, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Dalit Contini & Nicola Negri, 2005. "Would Declining Exit Rates from Welfare Provide Evidence of Welfare Dependence in Homogeneous Environments?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 39, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    6. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2005. "Employment Dynamics of Married Women in Europe," Working Papers WR-273, RAND Corporation.
    7. Hausman, Jerry A. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2014. "Estimating a semi-parametric duration model without specifying heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 114-131.
    8. Peter Haan, 2005. "State Dependence and Female Labor Supply in Germany: The Extensive and the Intensive Margin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 538, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
    10. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    11. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    12. Jorgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2009. "The dynamics of immigrant welfare and labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(4), pages 941-970, October.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9mgp8l is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    15. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    16. Andrew Benito & Garry Young, 2003. "Hard Times or Great Expectations? Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 531-555, December.
    17. M. Klawitter & R. Plotnick & M. Edwards, "undated". "Determinants of welfare entry and exit by young women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1099-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    18. Akay, Alpaslan, 2007. "Monte Carlo Investigation of the Initial Values Problem in Censored Dynamic Random-Effects Panel Data Models," Working Papers in Economics 278, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    19. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    20. Horowitz, Joel L., 2004. "Semiparametric models," Papers 2004,17, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9mgp8l is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Islam, Nizamul, 2005. "Dynamic labour force participation of married women in Sweden," Working Papers in Economics 184, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 10 Jul 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Letters and Science IT Services Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.