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Is it Risk? An Automated Approach to Explain the ex ante UIP Deviations of Brazil

  • Alex Luiz Ferreira.

The paper tests whether ex ante deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity correspond to default risk premium. Using an automated model selection criteria and data for Brazil (from november 2001 until december 2007), we found that deviations are corre

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Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 46 (2009)
Issue (Month): 133 ()
Pages: 51-66

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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:46:y:2009:i:133:p:51-66
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  1. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03.
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  6. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2007. "The Economics of Uncovered Interest Parity Condition for Emerging Markets: A Survey," Working Papers 2007/13, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  8. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
  10. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
  11. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 523-573.
  12. Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
  15. Tillmann, Peter, 2004. "External shocks and the non-linear dynamics of Brady bond spreads in a regime-switching VAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 439-454, December.
  16. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, 02.
  17. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  18. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
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