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Persistence in US Treasury bonds

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  • Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence in the US Treasury bond rate returns from 1946 to 2019 by using fractional integration. It is shown that the degree of integration of the series (and thus the level of persistence) reduces as we increase the time of the maturity rate from the 1- and 2-year rates to the 20- and 30-year bond rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2022. "Persistence in US Treasury bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s1544612321002610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fleming, Michael J, 2002. "Are Larger Treasury Issues More Liquid? Evidence from Bill Reopenings," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 707-735, August.
    2. Craig H Furfine & Eli M Remolona, 2002. "What's behind the liquidity spread? On-the-run and off-the-run US Treasuries in autumn 1998," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
    4. Rafael Weiβbach & Wladyslaw Poniatowski & Guido Zimmermann, 2011. "The Yield of Constant Maturity 10-Year US Treasury Notes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Razvan Pascalau (ed.), Nonlinear Financial Econometrics: Forecasting Models, Computational and Bayesian Models, chapter 1, pages 3-17, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Polwitoon, Sirapat & Tawatnuntachai, Oranee, 2006. "Diversification benefits and persistence of US-based global bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2767-2786, October.
    6. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Chau, Po-Hon, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 109-128.
    7. Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
    8. Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Poza, Carlos, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the degree of persistence of US stock prices and bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 118-123.
    2. Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2022. "Stochastic structure of metal prices: Evidence from fractional integration non-linearities and breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistence; Fractional integration; US Treasury bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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