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Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns

  • Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
  • Qiao, Zhuo
  • Wong, Wing-Keung

This study investigates the linearity and stationarity properties of government bond returns for the G7 economies. Our results from Luukkonen et al. (1988) linearity test reveal the nonlinear nature of all of the G7 bond returns. Furthermore, we had determined that they are stationary by the Kapetanios et al. (2003) nonlinear unit root test. In sum, it can be concluded that G7 government bond returns are stationary but possess a nonlinear feature. Our findings provide useful information for researchers interested in bond markets.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24836/1/MPRA_paper_24836.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24836.

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Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision: 08 Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24836
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  1. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  2. Dirk Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2006. "Flight-to-quality or Contagion? An EmpiricalAnalysis of Stock-bond correlations," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp122, IIIS.
  3. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2001. "Long memory and nonlinear mean reversion in Japanese yen-based real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 115-132, February.
  5. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Kian-Ping Lim, 2005. "Income Divergence? Evidence of Non-linearity in the East Asian Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7.
  6. Gordon J. Alexander & Amy K. Edwards & Michael G. Ferri, 2000. "What Does Nasdaq's High Yield Bond Market Reveal about Bondholder-Shareholder Conflict?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(1), Spring.
  7. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 2003. "Common factors in international bond returns," Other publications TiSEM 06a83942-b625-4d3c-808c-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  8. John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Campbell, John Y, 1986. " A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-93, March.
  10. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 2000. "Common Factors in International Bond Returns," Discussion Paper 2000-91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  12. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
  13. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 161-194, March.
  14. Delroy M. Hunter & David P. Simon, 2005. "A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(4), pages 463-482.
  15. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  17. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
  18. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Hinich, Melvin J. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 337-339, September.
  19. Bodart, V. & Reding, P., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regime, Volatility and International Correlations on Bond and Stock Markets," Papers 204, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
  20. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2004. "Monetary policy implications of comovements among long-term interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-164, April.
  21. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2007. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices: evidence from Asian markets," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-29, January.
  22. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
  23. Shively, Philip A., 2003. "The nonlinear dynamics of stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-517.
  24. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  25. Shively, Philip A., 2005. "Threshold nonlinear interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 313-317, September.
  26. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
  27. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:1:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
  29. Lance Bachmeier, 2002. "Is the term structure nonlinear? A semiparametric investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 151-153.
  30. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Nor Aishah Hamzah, 2008. "Real interest rate parity in the ASEAN-5 countries: a nonlinear perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 955-958.
  31. Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
  32. Jones, David S. & Vance Roley, V., 1983. "Rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure : A test using weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 453-465, September.
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