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A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets

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  • Delroy M. Hunter
  • David P. Simon

Abstract

This paper uses a bivariate GARCH framework to examine the lead‐lag relations and the conditional correlations between 10‐year US government bond returns and their counterparts from the UK, Germany, and Japan. We find that while mean and volatility spillovers exist between the major international bond markets, they are much weaker than those between equity markets. The results also indicate that the correlations between the US and other major bond market returns are time varying and are driven by changing macroeconomic and market conditions. However, in contrast to the finding that the benefits of international diversification in equity markets evaporate during high‐stress periods, we find that the benefits of diversification across major government bond markets do not decrease during periods of extremely high bond market volatility or following extremely negative US and foreign bond returns.

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  • Delroy M. Hunter & David P. Simon, 2005. "A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(4), pages 463-482, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:463-482
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00293.x
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    1. Hans Christiansen & Charles Pigott, 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rates in Globalised Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 175, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2017. "Frontier and emerging government bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 232-255.
    2. Giuliano Iannotta & Marco Navone, 2008. "Which Factors Affect Bond Underwriting Fees? The Role of Banking Relationships," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 944-961, November.
    3. Marta Gómez†Puig, 2009. "Systemic and Idiosyncratic Risk in EU†15 Sovereign Yield Spreads after Seven Years of Monetary Union," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 971-1000, November.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306, Decembrie.
    5. Polwitoon, Sirapat & Tawatnuntachai, Oranee, 2006. "Diversification benefits and persistence of US-based global bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2767-2786, October.
    6. Pilar Abad & Helena Chuliá & Marta Gómez†Puig, 2014. "Time†varying Integration in European Government Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 270-290, March.
    7. Bruce G. Resnick & Gary L. Shoesmith, 2011. "Information Transmission in the World Money Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 183-200, January.
    8. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera & Marcella Nicolini, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," Working Papers 2016.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Portfolio benefits of adding corporate credit default swap indices: evidence from North America and Europe," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 203-259, July.
    10. Md. Mahmudul Haque & Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury & Abdul Aziz Buriev & Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha & Mansur Masih, 2018. "Who drives whom ‐ sukuk or bond? A new evidence from granger causality and wavelet approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 117-132, April.
    11. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    12. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 389-409, June.
    13. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
    14. Kemal Eyuboglu & Sinem Eyuboglu, 2017. "Examining the Developed and Emerging Bond Market Interactions: A VAR Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 139-156, April.
    15. Vukovic, Darko B. & Lapshina, Kseniya A. & Maiti, Moinak, 2021. "Wavelet coherence analysis of returns, volatility and interdependence of the US and the EU money markets: Pre & post crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    17. Galvani, Valentina & Behnamian, Aslan, 2009. "A Comparative Analysis of the Returns on Provincial and Federal Canadian Bonds," Working Papers 2009-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    18. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-keung Wong, 2010. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2642-2655.
    19. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    20. Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Sclip, Alex, 2018. "The determinants of co-movement dynamics between sukuk and conventional bonds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 73-84.
    21. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2009. "Do Inflation‐Linked Bonds Still Diversify?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 279-297, March.
    22. Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2016. "In search of the determinants of European asset market comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-117.
    23. Marinella Davide & Paola Vesco, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2016.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    24. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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