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A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets

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Listed:
  • Delroy M. Hunter
  • David P. Simon

Abstract

"This paper uses a bivariate GARCH framework to examine the lead-lag relations and the conditional correlations between 10-year US government bond returns and their counterparts from the UK, Germany, and Japan. We find that while mean and volatility spillovers exist between the major international bond markets, they are much weaker than those between equity markets. The results also indicate that the correlations between the US and other major bond market returns are time varying and are driven by changing macroeconomic and market conditions. However, in contrast to the finding that the benefits of international diversification in equity markets evaporate during high-stress periods, we find that the benefits of diversification across major government bond markets do not decrease during periods of extremely high bond market volatility or following extremely negative US and foreign bond returns." Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Delroy M. Hunter & David P. Simon, 2005. "A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(4), pages 463-482.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:463-482
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00293.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans Christiansen & Charles Pigott, 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rates in Globalised Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 175, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    2. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2017. "Frontier and emerging government bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 232-255.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    6. Polwitoon, Sirapat & Tawatnuntachai, Oranee, 2006. "Diversification benefits and persistence of US-based global bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2767-2786, October.
    7. Marinella Davide & Paola Vesco, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2016.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
    9. repec:dug:actaec:y:2017:i:2:p:139-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Galvani, Valentina & Behnamian, Aslan, 2009. "A Comparative Analysis of the Returns on Provincial and Federal Canadian Bonds," Working Papers 2009-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:73-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 389-409, June.
    13. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    14. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-keung Wong, 2010. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2642-2655.
    15. Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2016. "In search of the determinants of European asset market comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-117.

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