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U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates, 1890-1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks

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  • Newbold, Paul, et al

Abstract

This paper presents econometric evidence on whether the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1914 caused a structural change from level stationarity to difference stationarity in U. S. and U.K. short-term nominal interest rates. We develop new econometric tests that allow for parameter transitions to test for a break of this kind and undertake a grid search analysis of dates and speeds for the change. We find that U. S. nominal interest rates most likely evolved rapidly to difference stationarity in June 1917. For the United Kingdom we fail to reject the null that U.K. interest rate series follow a difference stationary process over the entire period 1890-1934. Our analysis differs from previous research on this topic in that we take care to explore statistical uncertainty around parameter estimates, and incorporate higher-order dynamics into our econometric analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbold, Paul, et al, 2001. "U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates, 1890-1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 235-250, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:33:y:2001:i:2:p:235-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2013. "Nominal interest rates and stationarity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 741-745, May.
    2. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Nick Sarantis, 2007. "A nonlinear panel unit root test under cross section dependence," Documents de recherche 07-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    3. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2022. "Persistence in US Treasury bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-through in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Georgi MARINOV, 2016. "Small Sample Properties Of Panel Cointegration Tests In The Presence Of Structural Change," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 35-41, JULY.

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