U.S. and U.K. Interest Rates 1890 - 1934: New Evidence on Structural Breaks
This paper presents econometric evidence on whether the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1914 caused a structural change from level-stationarity to difference-stationarity in U.S. and U.K. short-term nominal interest rates. We develop new econometric tests that allow for parameter transitions to test for a break of this kind and undertake a grid search analysis of dates and speeds for the change. We find that U.S. nominal interest rates most likely evolved rapidly to difference-stationarity in June 1917. For the U.K. we fail to reject the null that U.K. interest rate series follow a difference stationary process over the entire period 1890-1934. Our analysis differs from previous research on this topic in that we take care to explore statistical uncertainty around parameter estimates, and incorporate higher order dynamics into our econometric analysis.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+ 353 1) 6081325
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Angelini, Paolo, 1994. "More on the behavior of interest rates and the founding of the Fed," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 537-553, December.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1988.
"Central banking under the gold standard,"
88-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1988. "Central banking under the gold standard," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 85-124, January.
- Fishe, Raymond P H & Wohar, Mark, 1990. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 968-76, September.
- Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January.
- Clark, Truman A, 1986. "Interest Rate Seasonals and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 76-125, February.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987.
"The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-74, June.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 2124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:20011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Patricia Hughes)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.