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Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  2. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
  3. Wang, Zi-Mei & Chiao, Chaoshin & Chang, Ya-Ting, 2012. "Technical analyses and order submission behaviors: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 109-128.
  4. Coakley, Jerry & Marzano, Michele & Nankervis, John, 2016. "How profitable are FX technical trading rules?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 273-282.
  5. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2002. "Predicción No-Lineal De Tipos De Cambio: Algoritmos Genéticos, Redes Neuronales Y Fusión De Datos," Working Papers 0205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  6. Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2009. "A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1575-1585, September.
  7. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "Sand in the Wheels of International Finance: Revisiting the Debate in Light of the East Asian Mayhem," Working Papers id:2686, eSocialSciences.
  8. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2007. "Non-linear, hybrid exchange rate modeling and trading profitability in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 557-574, February.
  9. Rafał Dreżewski & Grzegorz Dziuban & Karol Pająk, 2018. "The Bio-Inspired Optimization of Trading Strategies and Its Impact on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Sustainable Development Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-45, May.
  10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
  11. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Nomikos, Nikos, 2014. "Performance replication of the Spot Energy Index with optimal equity portfolio selection: Evidence from the UK, US and Brazilian markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 571-582.
  12. Bernd Brandl & Christian Keber & Matthias Schuster, 2006. "An automated econometric decision support system: forecasts for foreign exchange trades," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 14(4), pages 401-415, December.
  13. Hui Qu & Xindan Li, 2014. "Building Technical Trading System with Genetic Programming: A New Method to Test the Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 301-311, March.
  14. Neely, Christopher J., 2003. "Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-87.
  15. Bernd Brandl, 2005. "Exchange Rates: Predictable but not Explainable? Data Mining with Leading Indicators and Technical Trading Rules," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 192/2005 - Issues in Modeling, Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 12, pages 195-209, University of Lodz.
  16. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
  17. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Trend followers, contrarians and fundamentalists: Explaining the dynamics of financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 117-136.
  18. Barbara Summers & Evan Griffiths & Robert Hudson, 2004. "Back to the future: an empirical investigation into the validity of stock index models over time," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 209-214.
  19. Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 443-470, March.
  20. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
  21. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  22. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 338-354, November.
  23. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ip, Hugo Tak-Sang, 2009. "Do momentum-based strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 479-493, September.
  24. Cialenco, Igor & Protopapadakis, Aris, 2011. "Do technical trading profits remain in the foreign exchange market? Evidence from 14 currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 176-206, April.
  25. Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2015. "Market Timing With Moving Averages," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 387-425, September.
  26. Pereira, Robert, 1999. "Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 9055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
  28. Petr Zeman, 2014. "Technical Trading and Testing of Intra-day Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Acta Universitatis Bohemiae Meridionales, University of South Bohemia in Ceske Budejovice, vol. 17(1), pages 3-13.
  29. Bajgrowicz, Pierre & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 473-491.
  30. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming vs. GARCH and RiskMetrics," Working Papers 2001-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  31. Robert Pereira, 2000. "Genetic Algorithm Optimisation for Finance and Investment," Working Papers 2000.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  32. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland.
  33. Senol Emir & Hasan Dincer & Umit Hacioglu & Serhat Yuksel, 2016. "Random Regression Forest Model using Technical Analysis Variables: An application on Turkish Banking Sector in Borsa Istanbul (BIST)," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 85-102, April.
  34. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse & Xibin Zhang, 2003. "Structural change and lead-lag relationship between the Nikkei spot index and futures price: a genetic programming approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 136-144.
  35. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
  36. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2004. "Some issues on the stability of trading based on technical analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 609-624.
  37. Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2017. "Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 353-394, September.
  38. Ioana-Andreea Boboc & Mihai-Cristian Dinică, 2013. "An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.
  39. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
  40. Andrei Shynkevich, 2021. "Impact of bitcoin futures on the informational efficiency of bitcoin spot market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 115-134, January.
  41. Jason F. Nicholls & Andries P. Engelbrecht, 2019. "Co‐evolved genetic programs for stock market trading," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 117-136, July.
  42. Taewook Kim & Ha Young Kim, 2019. "Optimizing the Pairs-Trading Strategy Using Deep Reinforcement Learning with Trading and Stop-Loss Boundaries," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-20, November.
  43. Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Wang, Zigan, 2020. "The Out-of-Sample Performance of Carry Trades," CEPR Discussion Papers 15052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm85, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
  45. Taewook Kim & Ha Young Kim, 2019. "Forecasting stock prices with a feature fusion LSTM-CNN model using different representations of the same data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
  46. Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2015. "An improved moving average technical trading rule," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 458-469.
  47. Siroos Khademalomoom & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "Higher Moments and Exchange Rate Behavior," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 201-229, February.
  48. Lee, Chun I & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Trading rule profits in Latin American currency spot rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-156.
  49. Sapp, Stephen, 2004. "Are all Central Bank interventions created equal? An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-474, March.
  50. Zarrabi, Nima & Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry, 2017. "FX technical trading rules can be profitable sometimes!," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 113-127.
  51. Adam Karp & Gary Van Vuuren, 2019. "Investment Implications Of The Fractal Market Hypothesis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-27, March.
  52. Los, Cornelis A., 1999. "Nonparametric testing of the high-frequency efficiency of the 1997 Asian foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 265-289, November.
  53. James K. Self, 2006. "Asymmetric Stationarity in National Stock Market Indices: An MTAR Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 3153-3174, November.
  54. Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2019. "The performance of technical trading rules in Socially Responsible Investments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 397-411.
  55. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea & Yimei Man, 2018. "Cross‐Sectional and Time Series Momentum Returns and Market States," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 705-715, December.
  56. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "A dynamic analysis of moving average rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1729-1753.
  57. Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 443-470, March.
  58. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
  59. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December.
  60. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
  61. Alberto De Santis & Umberto Dellepiane & Stefano Lucidi & Stefania Renzi, 2014. "Optimal Step-wise Parameter Optimization of a FOREX Trading Strategy," DIAG Technical Reports 2014-06, Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Universita' degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza".
  62. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  63. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 249-260.
  64. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  65. Martin, Anna D., 2001. "Technical trading rules in the spot foreign exchange markets of developing countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-68, February.
  66. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857, April.
  67. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  68. Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
  69. Psaradellis, Ioannis & Laws, Jason & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Sermpinis, Georgios, 2023. "Technical analysis, spread trading, and data snooping control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 178-191.
  70. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 131, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  71. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
  72. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  73. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
  74. Ivelina Pavlova & A. M. Parhizgari, 2011. "In search of momentum profits: are they illusory?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1617-1639.
  75. Agrrawal, Pankaj & Agarwal, Rajat, 2023. "A Longer-Term evaluation of Information releases by Influential market Agents and the Semi-strong market Efficiency," EconStor Preprints 273555, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  76. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
  77. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August.
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  79. Lijun Wang & Haizhong An & Xiaohua Xia & Xiaojia Liu & Xiaoqi Sun & Xuan Huang, 2014. "Generating Moving Average Trading Rules on the Oil Futures Market with Genetic Algorithms," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-10, May.
  80. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan, 2016. "Technical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 188-208.
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  82. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
  83. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Instrument rules in monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 97-111.
  84. Kwang-il Choe & Joshua Krausz & Kiseok Nam, 2011. "Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 323-353, April.
  85. Potì, Valerio & Levich, Richard M. & Pattitoni, Pierpaolo & Cucurachi, Paolo, 2014. "Predictability, trading rule profitability and learning in currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 117-129.
  86. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 387-395.
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  88. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
  89. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2010. "Dynamics of moving average rules in a continuous-time financial market model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 615-634, December.
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  122. Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "The cost of technical trading rules in the Forex market: A utility-based evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1072-1089, November.
  123. Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 1999. "Technical analysis versus market efficiency - a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 183-191.
  124. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 1999. "Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-458.
  125. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
  126. Mikael Bask, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 338-354, November.
  127. Qing Zhou & Robert Faff, 2017. "The complementary role of cross-sectional and time-series information in forecasting stock returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 113-139, February.
  128. Adrián Fernández-P�rez & Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Exploiting trends in the foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 591-597, April.
  129. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
  130. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.
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