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Technical analysis and individual investors

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  • Hoffmann, Arvid O.I.
  • Shefrin, Hersh

Abstract

We find that individual investors who use technical analysis and trade options frequently make poor portfolio decisions, resulting in dramatically lower returns than other investors. The data on which this claim is based consists of transaction records and matched survey responses of a sample of Dutch discount brokerage clients for the period 2000–2006. Overall, our results indicate that individual investors who report using technical analysis are disproportionately prone to have speculation on short-term stock-market developments as their primary investment objective, hold more concentrated portfolios which they turn over at a higher rate, are less inclined to bet on reversals, choose risk exposures featuring a higher ratio of nonsystematic risk to total risk, engage in more options trading, and earn lower returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Shefrin, Hersh, 2014. "Technical analysis and individual investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 487-511.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:107:y:2014:i:pb:p:487-511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.04.002
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    14. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Jun-De Lee, 2016. "Is Abnormally Large Volume a Clue?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(9), pages 226-233, September.
    15. Jatin Malhotra & Angelo Corelli, 2021. "The Relative Informativeness of Regular and E-Mini Euro/Dollar Futures Contracts and the Role of Trader Types," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.
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    17. Bosman, Ronald & Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2015. "The "tone effect" of news on investor beliefs: An experimental approach," CFS Working Paper Series 522, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    19. Vicky Henderson & Saul Jacka & Ruiqi Liu, 2021. "The Support and Resistance Line Method: An Analysis via Optimal Stopping," Papers 2103.02331, arXiv.org.
    20. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    21. Isidore, Renu & Arun, C. Joe, 2023. "The Moderating Effect of Financial Literacy on the Relationship Between Decision-Making Tools and Equity Returns in the Indian Secondary Equity Market," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 15(1), pages 185-211, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral finance; Household finance; Individual investors; Investor behavior; Investor performance; Technical analysis; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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