The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market
AbstractIn this paper we examine the question of whether knowledge of the information contained in a limit order book helps to provide economic value in a simple trading scheme. Given the greater information content of the order book, over simple price information, it might naturally be expected that the order book would dominate. Using Dollar Sterling tick data, we find that despite the in-sample statistical significance of variables describing the structure of the limit order book in explaining tick-by-tick returns, they do not consistently add significant economic value out-of-sample. We show this using a simple linear model to determine trading activity, as well as a model-free genetic algorithm based on price, order flow, and order book information. We also find that the profitability of all trading rules based on genetic algorithms dropped substantially in 2008 compared to 2003 data.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.
Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar
Profitability; Limit order book; High-frequency data; Algorithmic trading;
Other versions of this item:
- : Roman Kozhan & Mark Salmon, 2010. "The information Content of a Limit Order Book:the Case of an FX Market," Working Papers wpn10-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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