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Liquidity and valuation in an uncertain world

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  • Easley, David
  • O'Hara, Maureen

Abstract

During the 2007-2009 financial crisis there was little or no trading in a variety of financial assets, even though bid and ask prices existed for many of these assets. We develop a model in which this illiquidity arises from uncertainty, and we argue that this new form of illiquidity makes bid and ask prices unsuitable as metrics for establishing "fair value" for these assets. We show how the extreme uncertainty that traders face can be characterized by incomplete preferences over portfolios, and we use Bewley's (2002) model of decision making under uncertainty to derive equilibrium quotes and the nonexistence of trading at these quotes. We then suggest alternatives for valuing assets in illiquid markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 97 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 1-11

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:97:y:2010:i:1:p:1-11

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

Related research

Keywords: Liquidity Uncertainty Subprime crisis Fair value accounting;

References

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2007. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," NBER Working Papers 12896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence Blume & Tarek Coury & David Easley, 2006. "Information, trade and incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 379-394, October.
  3. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1989. "Insider Trading, Liquidity, and the Role of the Monopolist Specialist," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 211-35, April.
  4. Spiegel, Matthew, 2008. "Patterns in cross market liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 2-10, March.
  5. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
  7. Rigotti, Luca & Shannon, Chris, 2001. "Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7pp7113z, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. H. Henry Cao & Tan Wang & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "Model Uncertainty, Limited Market Participation, and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1219-1251.
  9. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  10. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
  11. Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979. "Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge," Discussion Papers 377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Huang, Jennifer & Wang, Jiang, 2010. "Market liquidity, asset prices, and welfare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 107-127, January.
  13. Thaler, Richard, 1980. "Toward a positive theory of consumer choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-60, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, 08.
  2. Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Liquidity hoarding," Staff Reports 488, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Philip Bond & Yaron Leitner, 2012. "Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage," Working Papers 12-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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