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Are technical trading rules profitable? Evidence for head-and-shoulder rules

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  • Bernd Lucke

Abstract

The profitability of chartist trading rules on foreign exchange markets is still under debate. Since simple technical trading rules may not adequately capture the complex phenomenon of chartist trading, this study focuses on the prominent head-and-shoulder pattern as a representative trading rule which incorporates various 'technical' ideas such as smoothed trends, trend reversal, resistance levels, and volatility clustering. For various combinations of the building blocks of head-and-shoulder definitions the result is generally negative: Returns to head-and-shoulder trading rules are not significantly positive - and if there is any evidence for non-zero returns at all, then it is evidence for negative returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-40

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:1:p:33-40

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  1. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
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  4. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
  7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  8. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Yung-Ho Chang & Massoud Metghalchi & Chia-Chung Chan, 2006. "Technical trading strategies and cross-national information linkage: the case of Taiwan stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 731-743.
  2. Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 443-470, 03.
  3. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2005. "The Use of Trading Strategies by Fund Managers: Some First Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-314, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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