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Dynamics of Moving Average Rules in a Continuous-time Financial Market Model

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Abstract

Within a continuous-time framework, this paper proposes a stochastic heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of financial markets with time delays to unify various moving average rules used indiscrete-time HAMs. The time delay represents a memory length of a moving average rule indiscrete-time HAMs.Intuitive conditions for the stability of the fundamental price of the deterministic model in terms of agents' behavior parameters and memory length are obtained. It is found that an increase in memory length not only can destabilize the market price, resulting in oscillatory market price characterized by a Hopf bifurcation, but also can stabilize another wise unstable market price, leading to stability switching as the memory length increases. Numerical simulations show that the stochastic model is able to characterize long deviations of the market price from its fundamental price and excess volatility and generate most of the stylized factso bserved in financial markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 268.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:268

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Keywords: asset price; financial market behavior; heterogeneous beliefs; stochastic delay differential equations; stability; bifurcations; stylized facts;

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Cited by:
  1. Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li, 2011. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Adaptive Behaviour in a Continuous-Time Asset Price Model," Research Paper Series 291, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Xue-Zhong He, 2012. "Recent Developments on Heterogeneous Beliefs and Adaptive Behaviour of Financial Markets," Research Paper Series 316, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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