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Predictive Regressions: A Present-value Approach

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  2. Kishor, N. Kundan & Morley, James, 2015. "What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 235-249.
  3. Li, Jiahan & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2017. "Equity premium prediction: The role of economic and statistical constraints," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 56-75.
  4. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  5. Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2010. "The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 16183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
  7. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Koijen, Ralph & Moskowitz, Tobias J & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Vrugt, Evert B., 2013. "Carry," CEPR Discussion Papers 9771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
  10. Cenedese, Gino & Mallucci, Enrico, 2016. "What moves international stock and bond markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-113.
  11. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Time-Varying Stock Return Predictability: The Eurozone Case," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 41, pages 28-38, June.
  12. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:3:p:589-609 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. KiHoon Jimmy Hong & Eliza Wu, 2014. "Can Momentum Factors Be Used to Enhance Accounting Information based Fundamental Analysis in Explaining Stock Price Movements?," Research Paper Series 346, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  14. Roberto Marfè & Julien Penasse, 2016. "The Time-Varying Risk of Macroeconomic Disasters," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 463, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  15. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  16. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
  17. Bollerslev, Tim & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2015. "Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 458-471.
  18. Zhi Da & Ravi Jagannathan & Jianfeng Shen, 2014. "Growth Expectations, Dividend Yields, and Future Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 20651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Roni Michaely & Stefano Rossi & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits," CESifo Working Paper Series 6751, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Benjamin Golez & Peter Koudijs, 2014. "Four Centuries of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 20814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Davide Pettenuzzo & Riccardo Sabbatucci & Allan Timmermann, 2018. "High-frequency Cash Flow Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  22. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 74-93.
  23. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  24. Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi & Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh, 2016. "Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 10-21.
  25. repec:kap:fmktpm:v:31:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-017-0290-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Michael Weber & Andreas Neuhierl, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," Working Papers 2016-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  27. repec:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:125-137 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-79, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  29. Kaihua Deng, 2015. "Predicting By Learning: An Adaptive Rationale," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-14, December.
  30. Buss, Adrian & Dumas, Bernard J, 2013. "Financial-market Equilibrium with Friction," CEPR Discussion Papers 9524, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2016. "Beliefs Aggregation and Return Predictability," Working Papers w0231, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  32. repec:oup:rasset:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:1-47. is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
  34. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:22-:d:143724 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Daniela Osterrieder & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2015. "Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation," CREATES Research Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  36. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
  37. Tetsuya Adachi & Takashi Asano & Tatsushi Okuda, 2016. "Simultaneous Estimation of Cost of Equity and Expected Earnings of Individual Firms with the Residual Income Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  38. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
  39. Lorenzo Camponovo & Olivier Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2016. "Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations," Papers 1612.05072, arXiv.org.
  40. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Price Dividend Ratio Factors : Proxies for Long Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. repec:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:05:p:2277-2303_00 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  43. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Dynamic factors and asset pricing: International and further U.S. evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 21-39.
  44. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2011. "Do Mean Reverting based trading strategies outperform Buy and Hold?," Working Papers 1113, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  45. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  46. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:2:p:248-263 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Frank Jong, 2012. "Portfolio Implications of Cointegration Between Labor Income and Dividends," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 397-412, December.
  49. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
  50. repec:eee:empfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Pierlauro Lopez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Q Theory and the Link Between Inflation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 85-105, July.
  52. Daniele Bianchi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2018. "Large-Scale Dynamic Predictive Regressions," Papers 1803.06738, arXiv.org.
  53. Lyle, Matthew R. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2015. "The cross section of expected holding period returns and their dynamics: A present value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 505-525.
  54. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1397-1411.
  55. Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term-Structure of Equity," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 407, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  56. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  57. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 285, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  58. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Lucas, André, 2017. "Long-Term versus Short-Term Contingencies in Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(05), pages 2277-2303, October.
  59. Kaihua Deng & Chang-Jin Kim, 2015. "Predicting Stock Returns — The Information Content Of Predictors Across Horizons," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-27, December.
  60. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  61. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  62. repec:now:jnlcfr:104.00000043 is not listed on IDEAS
  63. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  64. KiHoon Jimmy Hong & Bin Peng & Xiaohui Zhang, 2014. "Capturing the Impact of Latent Industry-Wide Shocks with Dynamic Panel Model," Research Paper Series 347, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  65. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2012. "Endogenous Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," NBER Working Papers 18450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model," MPRA Paper 58554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
  68. Cheolbeom Park & Dong-hun Shin, 2014. "Stock Market Predictability: Global Evidence and an Explanation," Discussion Paper Series 1405, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  69. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
  70. Møller, Stig V. & Sander, Magnus, 2017. "Dividends, earnings, and predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 153-163.
  71. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  72. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-32, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  73. Goetzmann, Will & Le Bris, David & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "The Present Value Relation Over Six Centuries: The Case of the Bazacle Company," TSE Working Papers 17-794, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  74. Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  75. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates and learning about stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 347-370.
  76. Hong, KiHoon & Wu, Eliza, 2016. "The roles of past returns and firm fundamentals in driving US stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 62-75.
  77. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. repec:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:126-140 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Nuno Silva, 2013. "Equity Premia Predictability in the EuroZone," GEMF Working Papers 2013-22, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  80. N. Kundan Kishor & James Morley, 2014. "What Factors Drive the Price-Rent Ratio for the Housing Market? A Modified Present-Value Approach," Discussion Papers 2014-20, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  81. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-32, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  82. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
  83. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2009. "Exploiting price misalignements," MPRA Paper 27147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Bilson, John F.O. & Kang, Sang Baum & Luo, Hong, 2015. "The term structure of implied dividend yields and expected returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 9-13.
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