IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inteco/v167y2021icp96-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What moves housing markets: A state-space approach of the price-income ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Rizi, Majid Haghani

Abstract

In this paper, we adopt the present-value model for the housing market to explain the relationship between expected future housing returns and expected future income growth in 21 OECD countries by using quarterly data over the period 1975–2019. By conducting the state-space approach, we use historical information of price-income ratios to predict unobserved components of the future income growth and housing returns. The evidence suggests that both expected income growth and expected housing returns are significant in explaining movements in the price-income ratio, while there is a heterogeneity among all countries. Further, we find a positive correlation between expected income growth and expected housing returns among all countries. The results of the variance decomposition of the present-value of price-income ratios also show that the most variation in the present-value components is explained in the housing return.

Suggested Citation

  • Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2021. "What moves housing markets: A state-space approach of the price-income ratio," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 96-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:167:y:2021:i:c:p:96-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2021.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701721000408
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    5. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    6. Kishor, N. Kundan & Morley, James, 2015. "What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 235-249.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    10. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    11. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, August.
    12. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2011. "A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note," Globalization Institute Working Papers 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    15. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    16. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    17. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    18. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    19. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    20. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    21. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    22. Hurst, Erik & Stafford, Frank, 2004. "Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 985-1014, December.
    23. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    24. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
    25. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
    26. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    27. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    28. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    30. Wang, Peijie & Brand, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to estimating value–income ratios with income growth and time-varying yields," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 182-187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    4. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
    5. Roni Michaely & Stefano Rossi & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits," CESifo Working Paper Series 6751, CESifo.
    6. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    7. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
    8. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    9. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
    10. Anthony Yanxiang Gu, 2013. "A Possible Method for Warning of House Price Bubble," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(2), pages 104-113, February.
    11. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    12. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    13. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    14. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    15. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    16. le Bris, David & Goetzmann, William N. & Pouget, Sébastien, 2019. "The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 248-265.
    17. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    18. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    19. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng, 2017. "House price to income ratio and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon forecastability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 293-311, August.
    20. Bergman, U. Michael & Sørensen, Peter Birch, 2021. "The interaction of actual and fundamental house prices: A general model with an application to Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing returns; Income growth; Present-value model; State-space model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:167:y:2021:i:c:p:96-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/21107017 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.