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Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. Treasury bond yields

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Cited by:

  1. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2022. "Persistence in US Treasury bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  2. Theofanis Archontakis & Wolfgang Lemke, 2008. "Threshold Dynamics of Short‐term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 75-117, February.
  3. Azamat Abdymomunov & Kyu Ho Kang & Ki Jeong Kim, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  4. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
  5. Mustafa Akay & Berat Bayram & Abdullah Kazdal & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Investigating Regime-Dependent Dynamics in Country Risk Premium: Evidence from Turkey and Emerging Markets," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2008, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
  7. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
  8. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
  9. Wolfgang Lemke & Theofanis Archontakis, 2008. "Bond pricing when the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 811-822.
  10. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2017. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime Switching Econometric Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1049, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  11. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2011. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1984-2000, August.
  12. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
  13. Sergei Koulayev & Marc Rysman & Scott Schuh & Joanna Stavins, 2016. "Explaining adoption and use of payment instruments by US consumers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(2), pages 293-325, May.
  14. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
  15. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
  16. Gordon H. Dash & Nina Kajiji & Domenic Vonella, 2018. "The role of supervised learning in the decision process to fair trade US municipal debt," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 139-168, June.
  17. Marcelo Ferman, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp678, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Gourieroux, Christian & Sufana, Razvan, 2011. "Discrete time Wishart term structure models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 815-824, June.
  19. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
  20. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  21. Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
  22. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
  23. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
  24. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kjær, Mads Markvart & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  25. Ferland, René & Gauthier, Geneviève & Lalancette, Simon, 2010. "A regime-switching term structure model with observable state variables," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-109, June.
  26. Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2015. "Predicting Interest Rate Volatility Using Information on the Yield Curve," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 347-386, September.
  27. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011. "Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 205-229, March.
  28. Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
  29. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  30. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  31. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
  32. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
  33. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
  34. García-Verdú Santiago, 2010. "Equilibrium yield curves under regime switching," Working Papers 2010-08, Banco de México.
  35. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2019. "Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in regime switching econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 442-467.
  36. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Almansour, Abdullah, 2016. "Convenience yield in commodity price modeling: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 238-247.
  38. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
  39. Dong, Fangyuan & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2015. "Longevity bond pricing under the threshold CIR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 195-207.
  40. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
  41. Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz & Zachary Alexander Smith, 2018. "IPOs in the U.S. from 2005 to 2015: Using the Spline Regression Technique to Estimate Aggregate Issuance and Performance," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 165-199, April.
  42. Realdon, Marco, 2009. ""Extended Black" term structure models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 232-238, December.
  43. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
  44. AUGUSTYNIAK, Maciej & BAUWENS, Luc & DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2016. "A New Approach to Volatility Modeling : The High-Dimensional Markov Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2016042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  45. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
  46. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  47. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732517 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Hidenori Futami, 2009. "Multi-factor Affine Term Structure Model with Single Regime Shift: Real Term Structure under Zero Interest Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(4), pages 347-369, December.
  49. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
  50. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dendramis, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-170.
  51. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  52. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
  53. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.
  54. Abdymomunov Azamat & Kang Kyu Ho, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy regime shifts on the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 183-207, April.
  55. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
  56. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
  57. Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart & Liu, Liu, 2022. "The yen–dollar risk premium: A story of regime shifts in bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  58. Mikael Elhouar, 2008. "Finite-dimensional Realizations of Regime-switching HJM Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 331-354.
  59. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
  60. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  61. Chen, Jiakai, 2021. "LIBOR's poker," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  62. Bekiros, Stelios & Avdoulas, Christos & Hassapis, Christis, 2018. "Nonlinear equilibrium adjustment dynamics and predictability of the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 140-155.
  63. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  64. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
  65. Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Lotfi, 2009. "Conditional volatility in affine term-structure models: Evidence from Treasury and swap markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 288-318, March.
  66. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  67. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  68. N. Baba & Y. Sakurai, 2011. "Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1415-1419.
  69. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  70. Fabio Antonelli & Alessandro Ramponi & Sergio Scarlatti, 2013. "Option-based risk management of a bond portfolio under regime switching interest rates," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 36(1), pages 47-70, May.
  71. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
  72. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
  73. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  74. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  75. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2016. "When the Going Gets Tough: Durable Consumption and the Equity Premium," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 225, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  76. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.
  77. Renne Jean-Paul, 2017. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 99-116, February.
  78. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
  79. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
  80. Arturo Leccadito & Stefania Veltri, 2015. "A regime switching Ohlson model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2015-2035, September.
  81. Zaiwen Wen & Xianhua Peng & Xin Liu & Xiaoling Sun & Xiaodi Bai, 2013. "Asset Allocation under the Basel Accord Risk Measures," Papers 1308.1321, arXiv.org.
  82. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  83. Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2013. "Pricing bond options under a Markovian regime-switching Hull–White model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 933-940.
  84. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  85. Duffee, Gregory R., 2013. "Bond Pricing and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 907-967, Elsevier.
  86. Junko Koeda, 2011. "Japanese Yield Curves In and Out of a Zero Rate Environmnet: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-254, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2011.
  87. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
  88. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  89. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  90. Huang, Jia-Ping & Sumita, Ushio, 2015. "Development of computational algorithms for pricing European bond options under the influence of macro-economic conditions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 453-468.
  91. Michael W Brandt & David A Chapman, 2018. "Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models [A new approach to international arbitrage pricing]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 455-489.
  92. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  93. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
  94. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  95. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-75, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  96. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
  97. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  98. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  99. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskii, Sergei, 2008. "Exit problems in regime-switching models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 180-206, January.
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