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Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables

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  • N. Baba
  • Y. Sakurai

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the role of US macroeconomic variables as leading indicators of regime shifts in the VIX index using a regime-switching approach. We find that there are three distinct regimes in the VIX index during the 1990 to 2010 period: tranquil regime with low volatility, turmoil regime with high volatility and crisis regime with extremely high volatility. We also show that the regime shift from the tranquil to the turmoil regime is significantly predicted by lower term spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Baba & Y. Sakurai, 2011. "Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1415-1419.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:15:p:1415-1419
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.539532
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    Cited by:

    1. Slah Bahloul & Fathi Abid, 2012. "Regime-Switching Behavior in the Conditional Volatility of MENA Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 683, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2020. "Volatility persistence in the Russian stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Huck, Nicolas, 2019. "Large data sets and machine learning: Applications to statistical arbitrage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 330-342.
    4. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Mᵃ Isabel Martínez-Torre-Enciso, 2021. "Enhancing Portfolio Performance and VIX Futures Trading Timing with Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2018. "Persistence in the Russian Stock Market Volatility Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 7243, CESifo.
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
    7. David E Allen & Vince Hooper, 2018. "Generalized Correlation Measures of Causality and Forecasts of the VIX Using Non-Linear Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
    9. Onan, Mustafa & Salih, Aslihan & Yasar, Burze, 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic announcements on implied volatility slope of SPX options and VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 454-462.
    10. Jyothi Chittineni, 2018. "Indian Implied Volatility Index: A Macroeconomic Study," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(5), pages 75-82, September.
    11. Jyothi Chittineni,, 2017. "Regime switching behavior of Indian VIX and its time dependent correlation with select developed economies," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(5), pages 666-675, December.

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