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Euro at Risk: The Impact of Member Countries’ Credit Risk on the Stability of the Common Currency

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  • Bekkour, Lamia
  • Jin, Xisong
  • Lehnert, Thorsten
  • Rasmouki, Fanou
  • Wolff, Christian C

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the credit risk of Eurozone member countries on the stability of the Euro. In the absence of a common euro bond, euro-area credit risk is induced though the credit default swaps of the member countries. The stability of the euro is examined by decomposing dollar-euro exchange rate options into the moments of the risk-neutral distribution. We document that during the sovereign debt crisis changes in the creditworthiness of member countries have significant impact on the stability of the euro. In particular, an increase in member countries’ credit risk results in an increase of volatility of the dollar-euro exchange rate along with soaring tail risk induced through the risk-neutral kurtosis. We find that member countries’ credit risk is a major determinant of the euro crash risk as measured by the risk-neutral skewness. We propose a new indicator for currency stability by combining the risk-neutral moments into an aggregated risk measure and show that our results are robust to this change in measure. Noticeable is the fact that during the sovereign debt crisis, the creditworthiness of countries with vulnerable fiscal positions is the main risk-endangering factor of the euro-stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekkour, Lamia & Jin, Xisong & Lehnert, Thorsten & Rasmouki, Fanou & Wolff, Christian C, 2012. "Euro at Risk: The Impact of Member Countries’ Credit Risk on the Stability of the Common Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 9229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Yuehao & Lehnert, Thorsten & Wolff, Christian, 2019. "Skewness risk premium: Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-185.
    2. Yunus AÇCI & Selim KAYHAN & Tayfur BAYAT, 2018. "The effect of credit default swap premiums on developing markets’ economies: The case of exchange rates," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 235-252, Winter.
    3. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Senulytė, Sigita, 2016. "Euro crash risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 417-428.
    4. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    5. Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin & Nicolas Martelin, 2013. "Stein s Overreaction Puzzle: Option Anomaly or Perfectly Rational Behavior?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-11, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    6. Muhsin Kar & Tayfur Bayat & Selim Kayhan, 2016. "Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swaps; currency options; currency stability; European sovereign debt crisis; risk-neutral distribution;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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