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Skewness risk premium: Theory and empirical evidence

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  • Lin, Yuehao
  • Lehnert, Thorsten
  • Wolff, Christian

Abstract

Using an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a simple economy under jump diffusion, we show theoretically that the aggregated excess market returns can be predicted by the skewness risk premium, which is constructed to be the difference between the physical and the risk-neutral skewness. In an empirical application of the model using >20 years of data on S&P500 index options, we find that, in line with theory, risk-averse investors demand risk-compensation for holding stocks when the market skewness risk premium is high. However, when we characterize periods of high and low risk aversion, we show that in line with theory, the relationship only holds when risk aversion is high. In periods of low risk aversion, investors demand lower risk compensation, thus substantially weakening the skewness-risk-premium-return trade off.

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  • Lin, Yuehao & Lehnert, Thorsten & Wolff, Christian, 2019. "Skewness risk premium: Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:174-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2019.04.002
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    2. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2018. "The use of option prices in order to evaluate the skewness risk premium," Department of Economics 0132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Khashanah, Khaldoun & Simaan, Majeed & Simaan, Yusif, 2022. "Do we need higher-order comoments to enhance mean-variance portfolios? Evidence from a simplified jump process," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Marinela Adriana Finta & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2018. "Commodity Return Predictability: evidence from implied variance, skewness and their risk premia and their risk premia," Working Papers Series 479, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Finta, Marinela Adriana & Ornelas, José Renato Haas, 2022. "Commodity return predictability: Evidence from implied variance, skewness, and their risk premia☆☆," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Le, Trung H., 2021. "International portfolio allocation: The role of conditional higher moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-57.
    10. Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin & Nicolas Martelin, 2013. "Stein s Overreaction Puzzle: Option Anomaly or Perfectly Rational Behavior?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-11, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Skewness risk premium; Option markets; Central moments; Investor sentiment; Risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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