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Skewness Risk Premium: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Wolff
  • Thorsten Lehnert
  • Yuehao Lin

    (LSF)

Abstract

Using an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion, we derive an analytical link between the equity premium, risk aversion and the systematic variance and skewness risk premium. In an empirical application of the model using more than 20 years of data on S&P500 index options, we find that, in line with theory, risk-averse investors demand risk-compensation for holding equity when the systematic skewness risk premium is high. However, when we differentiate between market conditions proxied by investor sentiment, we find that in up-markets (high sentiment) risk aversion is low, while in down-markets (low sentiment) risk aversion is high. We show that in line with theory, the skewness-risk-premium-return relationship only holds when risk aversion is high. In periods of low risk aversion, investors demand lower risk compensation, thus substantially weakening the skewness-risk premium-return trade off. Therefore, we also provide new evidence that helps to disentangle sentiment from risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Wolff & Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin, 2014. "Skewness Risk Premium: Theory and Empirical Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 14-05, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:crf:wpaper:14-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu, 2023. "The predictability of skewness risk premium on stock returns: Evidence from Chinese market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 576-594.
    2. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2018. "The use of option prices in order to evaluate the skewness risk premium," Department of Economics 0132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Khashanah, Khaldoun & Simaan, Majeed & Simaan, Yusif, 2022. "Do we need higher-order comoments to enhance mean-variance portfolios? Evidence from a simplified jump process," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Bressan, Silvia & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2021. "The financial conglomerate discount: Insights from stock return skewness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2023. "Market risks that change US-European equity correlations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Marinela Adriana Finta & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2018. "Commodity Return Predictability: evidence from implied variance, skewness and their risk premia and their risk premia," Working Papers Series 479, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Finta, Marinela Adriana & Ornelas, José Renato Haas, 2022. "Commodity return predictability: Evidence from implied variance, skewness, and their risk premia☆☆," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Le, Trung H., 2021. "International portfolio allocation: The role of conditional higher moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-57.
    10. Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin & Nicolas Martelin, 2013. "Stein s Overreaction Puzzle: Option Anomaly or Perfectly Rational Behavior?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-11, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    11. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana & Esparcia, Carlos, 2024. "Sustainable risk preferences on asset allocation: a higher order optimal portfolio study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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