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Euro at Risk: The Impact of Member Countries Credit Risk on the Stability of the Common Currency

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Lehnert

  • Lamia Bekkour
  • Xisong Jin
  • Fanou Rasmouki
  • Christian Wolff

    (LSF)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the credit risk of Eurozone member countries on the stability of the Euro. In practice, in the absence of eurobonds, euro-area credit risk is induced though the credit default swaps of the member countries. The stability of the euro is examined by decomposing dollareuro exchange rate options into the moments of the risk-neutral distribution. We document that during the sovereign debt crisis changes in the creditworthiness of member countries have significant impact on the stability of the euro. In particular, an increase in member countries credit risk results in an increase of volatility of the dollar-euro exchange rate along with soaring tail risk induced through the riskneutral kurtosis. We find that member countries credit risk is a major determinant of the euro crash risk as measured by the risk-neutral skewness. We propose a new indicator for currency stability by combining the risk-neutral moments into an aggregated risk measure and show that our results are robust to this change in measure. Noticeable is the fact that during the sovereign debt crisis, the creditworthiness of countries with vulnerable fiscal positions is the main riskendangering factor of the euro-stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Lehnert & Lamia Bekkour & Xisong Jin & Fanou Rasmouki & Christian Wolff, 2012. "Euro at Risk: The Impact of Member Countries Credit Risk on the Stability of the Common Currency," LSF Research Working Paper Series 12-4, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:crf:wpaper:12-4
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    File URL: http://wwwen.uni.lu/content/download/53128/634569/file/Euro%20at%20Risk_The%20Impact%20of%20Member%20Countries%27%20Credit%20Risk%20on%20the%20Stability%20of%20the%20Common%20Currency_2012%20(4).pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Yuehao & Lehnert, Thorsten & Wolff, Christian, 2019. "Skewness risk premium: Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-185.
    2. Yunus AÇCI & Selim KAYHAN & Tayfur BAYAT, 2018. "The effect of credit default swap premiums on developing markets’ economies: The case of exchange rates," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 235-252, Winter.
    3. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Senulytė, Sigita, 2016. "Euro crash risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 417-428.
    4. António Portugal Duarte & Fátima Sol Murta & Nuno Baetas Silva, 2025. "Will the euro replace the U.S. dollar as the leading international currency? A volatility analysis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    6. Muhsin Kar & Tayfur Bayat & Selim Kayhan, 2016. "Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Thorsten Lehnert & Yuehao Lin & Nicolas Martelin, 2013. "Stein s Overreaction Puzzle: Option Anomaly or Perfectly Rational Behavior?," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-11, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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