Information Flow between Sovereign CDS and Dollar-Yen Currency Option Markets in the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2009-2011
While the US dollar and Japanese yen are considered as safe-haven currencies, both their sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and exchange rate have varied in a wide range since late 2007. This raises the question of interconnectivity between the anticipated sovereign credit risk and the market expectation of the dollar-yen exchange rate. This paper shows evidence of information flow from the sovereign CDS market to the dollar-yen currency option market during the sovereign debt crisis from September 2009 to August 2011 when concerns about sovereign credit risks in the developed economies were triggered. The impact of the US sovereign credit risk on the risk reversal is a separable risk factor in driving the market expectation of the dollar-yen exchange rate after controlling other macro-financial variables. While the Japanese sovereign CDS spread was higher than its US counterpart, its impact on the risk reversal was not significant.
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