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Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
  2. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
  3. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Burnside, Craig & Kleshchelski, Isaac, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September.
  5. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2002. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1261-1288, September.
  6. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
  7. James M. Nason, 1991. "The permanent income hypothesis when the bliss point is stochastic," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Poghosyan Tigran, 2012. "Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, May.
  9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  10. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
  11. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  12. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
  13. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, October.
  14. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  15. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2016. "The Exact Distribution of the Hansen–Jagannathan Bound," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 1915-1943, July.
  16. Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Money, capital, and real liquidity effects with habit formation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 430-453, May.
  17. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  18. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
  19. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
  20. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-72, February.
  21. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1994. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-152, March.
  22. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
  23. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," Working Papers hal-04140761, HAL.
  24. Cosmin Ilut, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 33-65, July.
  25. Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
  26. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
  28. Burton Hollifield & Armir Yaron, "undated". "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  29. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  30. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
  31. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2013. "Forecasting the NOK/USD Exchange Rate with Machine Learning Techniques," Working Paper series 59_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  32. Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  33. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 423-442, March.
  34. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
  35. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
  36. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  37. Bekaert, Geert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 427-470.
  38. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2017. "Can monetary policy cause the uncovered interest parity puzzle?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 34-44.
  39. Sibert, Anne, 1996. "Unconventional preferences: do they explain foreign exchange risk premia?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-165, February.
  40. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2003. "International asset allocation: A new perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2203-2230, November.
  41. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
  42. Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "New evidence on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign‐exchange market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 627-656, July.
  43. repec:osf:metaar:348kc_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  45. Leduc, Sylvain, 2002. "Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 957-980, December.
  46. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2004. "Looking for risk premium and contagion in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 381-409.
  47. Mansoorian, Arman, 1998. "Habits and durability in consumption, and the dynamics of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 69-82, February.
  48. Marey, Philip S., 2004. "Exchange rate expectations: controlled experiments with artificial traders," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 283-304, March.
  49. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
  50. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
  51. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.
  52. Sibert, Anne & Ha, Jiming, 1997. "Portfolio substitution and exchange rate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 517-534, August.
  53. Mansoorian, Arman & Michelis, Leo, 2006. "The transition to a new inflation rate in models with habit formation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 56-60, April.
  54. Adrian Ma, 2006. "Time-varying Risk Premium in the Forward Exchange Rate," EcoMod2006 272100057, EcoMod.
  55. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2020. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Working Paper 2020/3, Norges Bank.
  56. Craig Burnside, 2015. "The Carry Trade in Industrialized and Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 8, pages 245-280, Central Bank of Chile.
  57. Lee, Byung-Joo, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity puzzle: Asymmetric responses," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 238-249.
  58. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:143:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  60. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
  61. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  62. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
  63. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  64. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Mo, Henry & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "International capital asset pricing: Evidence from options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-498, September.
  66. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2001. "A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 441-460.
  67. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  68. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2008. "Macro and Financial Markets: The Memory of an Elephant?," Working Paper series 17_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  69. Sen Dong, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rates:A Structural VAR Identified by No Arbitrage," 2006 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  70. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Jianfeng Yu, 2011. "A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  72. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 1044-1069, November.
  73. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
  74. Yin, Weiwei & Li, Junye, 2014. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate dynamics: A no-arbitrage macro-finance approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
  75. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
  76. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kaleem, Muhammad, 2011. "Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-62, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  77. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1670-1686, December.
  78. Chang, Sanders S., 2013. "Can cross-country portfolio rebalancing give rise to forward bias in FX markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1079-1096.
  79. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "Liquidity in the forward exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170, May.
  80. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  81. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  82. Kosuke Tatsumura & Ryo Hidaka & Jun Nakayama & Tomoya Kashimata & Masaya Yamasaki, 2023. "Real-time Trading System based on Selections of Potentially Profitable, Uncorrelated, and Balanced Stocks by NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization," Papers 2307.06339, arXiv.org.
  83. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
  84. Mansoorian, Arman & Michelis, Leo, 2005. "Money, habits and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1267-1285, July.
  85. Sarita Bunsupha, 2018. "Extrapolative Beliefs and Exchange Rate Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 84, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  86. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2002. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-411, December.
  87. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2005. "Rational speculation and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-29, January.
  88. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
  89. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Ruiz, Jesus, 2006. "Monetary policy and forward bias for foreign exchange revisited: Empirical evidence from the US-UK exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 238-264, March.
  90. Konuki, Testuya, 1999. "Measuring noise in exchange rate models1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 255-270, August.
  91. René Garcia & Maral Kichian, 2000. "Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Staff Working Papers 00-9, Bank of Canada.
  92. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Can currency risk be a source of risk premium in explaining forward premium puzzle?: Evidence from Asia-Pacific forward exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 291-311, October.
  93. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
  94. Mansoorian, Arman & Neaime, Simon, 2003. "Durable goods, habits, time preference, and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 115-130, March.
  95. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  96. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  97. Yu, Jianfeng, 2013. "A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 474-491.
  98. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
  99. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper series 25_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  100. Christine Jiang & Thomas Chiang, 2000. "Do foreign exchange risk premiums relate to the volatility in the foreign exchange and equity markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 95-104.
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