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Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption

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Cited by:

  1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Other publications TiSEM 1dd22a17-bed0-4e7c-a2c1-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2010. "Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 129-143.
  3. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2022. "Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 312-348, February.
  4. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "A business-cycle model with a modified cash-in-advance feature, government sector and one-period nominal wage contracts: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(1(10)), pages 19-38.
  5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2016. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with efficiency wages and fiscal policy: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 148413, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  6. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2004. "Indeterminacy, aggregate demand, and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 503-530, April.
  7. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive firms and Calvo wages: Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Early Cit.
  8. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-476, March.
  9. Rotemberg, Julio J., 1996. "Prices, output, and hours: An empirical analysis based on a sticky price model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 505-533, June.
  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
  11. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
  12. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2022. "A Real-Business-Cycle Model with Endogenous Discounting and a Government Sector," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 54, pages 73-86, July.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
  14. Savagar, Anthony, 2021. "Measured productivity with endogenous markups and economic profits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  15. Karl Whelan, 2004. "New evidence on balanced growth, stochastic trends, and economic fluctuations," Open Access publications 10197/218, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  16. Pierre Lafourcade, 2004. "Valuation, investment and the pure profit share," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the \"technology\" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Dufourt, Frédéric & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2009. "Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 4302, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  19. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
  20. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
  21. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
  22. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  23. Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
  24. Jenyu Chou & Yifei Cao & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 530-542, April.
  25. Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2019. "Limited Asset Market Participation And The Euro Area Crisis: An Empirical Dsge Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(3), pages 1302-1323, July.
  26. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
  27. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
  28. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanović, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Review," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 10(1), March.
  29. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
  30. Donald Robertson & Anthony Garratt & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 521-542.
  31. Christian Calmès, 2005. "Self-Enforcing Labour Contracts and the Dynamics Puzzle," Staff Working Papers 05-1, Bank of Canada.
  32. Thijs van Rens, 2004. "Organizational capital and employment fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  33. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Business Cycles With A Common Trend in Neutral and Investment-Specific Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 122-135, January.
  34. Frederic Dufourt, 2000. "Dynamic Properties of the New Neoclassical Synthesis Model of Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0389, Econometric Society.
  35. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "Search and matching frictions and business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 319-340.
  36. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2015. "Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1266-1290, November.
  37. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
  38. Ingram, B.F. & DeJong, D.N. & Whiteman, C.H. & Wen, Y., 1996. "Cyclical Implications of the Variable Utilization of Physical and Human Capital," Working Papers 96-12, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  39. Dufourt, Frédéric & Venditti, Alain & Vivès, Rémi, 2018. "On sunspot fluctuations in variable capacity utilization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 80-94.
  40. Bell, William Paul, 2009. "Adaptive interactive expectations: dynamically modelling profit expectations," MPRA Paper 38260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2010.
  41. Yongsung Chang & Joao Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Persistence," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1632, Econometric Society.
  42. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2022. "A business cycle model with money-in-utility (MIU) and government sector: the case of Bulgaria (1999–2020)," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 1205-1217, April.
  43. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Endogenous growth and stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 107-128, February.
  44. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
  45. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
  46. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  47. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi, 2008. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 519-540, November.
  48. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "A Real-Business-Cycle Model with Efficiency Wages and a Government Sector: The Case of Bulgaria," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 359-377, December.
  49. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  50. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2018. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with reciprocity in labor relations and a government sector," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(2), pages 47-76.
  51. Dufourt, Frederic, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1089-1105, September.
  52. Kiley, Michael T., 2013. "Output gaps," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-18.
  53. Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2021. "Learning, confidence, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 354-376.
  54. Christian Calmès, 2003. "La poignée de main invisible et la persistance des cycles d’affaires : un survol," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 563-581.
  55. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
  56. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
  57. Barinci, Jean-Paul & Chéron, Arnaud & Langot, Francois, 2006. "Liquidity Constraints, Heterogeneous Households And Sunspot Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 529-544, September.
  58. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
  59. Sigal Ribon, 2003. "Is it labor, technology or monetary policy ? The Israeli economy 1989-2002," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.02b, Bank of Israel.
  60. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  61. Wong, Jin Boon & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2021. "Oil shocks and corporate payouts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  62. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2025. "Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 274-309, January.
  63. Gali, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Valles, Javier, 2003. "Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 723-743, May.
  64. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2003. "Labor hoarding, superior information, and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 397-418, November.
  65. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
  66. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2019. "Are Labor Unions Important for Business Cycle Fluctuations: Lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2019-02, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Jan 2019.
  67. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2023. "A business-cycle model with money and banking: the case of Bulgaria (1999–2018)," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 122-133, February.
  68. Oleg Korenok & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1481-1508, September.
  69. Fiona Atkins, 2005. "Financial Crises and Money Demand in Jamaica," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0512, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  70. Yi Wen, 2007. "Granger causality and equilibrium business cycle theory," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(May), pages 195-206.
  71. Chase Coleman & Kerk L. Phillips, 2014. "Business Cycle Persistence in a Model with Schumpeterian Growth and Uncorrelated Shocks," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2014-01, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.
  72. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  73. Wu, Ziqing & Chen, Leyi, 2025. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate total factor productivity? Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
  74. Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "Estimating a DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation for the Euro Area," Working Papers 286, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2014.
  75. Marcelo Arbex & Sidney Caetano & Michel Souza, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of shocks on TFP," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 206-210, February.
  76. Holland, Allison & Scott, Andrew, 1998. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1067-1092, July.
  77. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  78. Lindé, Jesper, 2004. "The Effects of Permanent Technology Shocks on Labor Productivity and Hours in the RBC model," Working Paper Series 161, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  79. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle," Working Papers hal-03923946, HAL.
  80. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
  81. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  82. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 143-161, March.
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  87. Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
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  89. Gianni Amisano & Massimiliano Serati, 2003. "What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 440-470, September.
  90. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
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  92. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Increasing returns, home production and persistence of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 519-543, April.
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  94. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
  95. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  96. Neusser, Klaus, 2008. "Interdependencies of US manufacturing sectoral TFPs: A spatial VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 991-1004, September.
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  107. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 5-20.
  108. Zafirovski, Milan, 2002. "Reconsidering equilibrium: a socio-economic perspective," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 559-579.
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  116. Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James & Ohanian, Lee, 2004. "Trend-reverting fluctuations in the life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 334-356, December.
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  118. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with search-and-matching frictions and efficiency ("fair") wages," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 64(2), pages 1-23.
  119. Tania Karamisheva, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 17-38.
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  123. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
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  125. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "A Real-business-cycle Model with a Stochastic Capital Share: Lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2018)," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 107-121, February.
  126. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, 2001. "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 49-80, Bank for International Settlements.
  127. Murasawa Yasutomo, 2022. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 387-415, June.
  128. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2003. "Capacity utilization, superior information, and the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-309, September.
  129. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  130. Dufourt, 2005. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models and the Beveridge-Nelson Facts," Macroeconomics 0501003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  131. Dexter, Albert S. & Levi, Maurice D. & Nault, Barrie R., 2002. "Sticky prices: the impact of regulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 797-821, May.
  132. Junxi Zhang, 2007. "Endogenous Markups, Intensity of Competition, and Persistence of Business Cycles," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(2), pages 546-565, October.
  133. Satoshi Urasawa, 2008. "Business cycle fluctuations in Japanese macroeconomic time series: 1980–2000," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 451-480.
  134. repec:cdl:ucsdec:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
  135. Luo Yulei & Young Eric R, 2009. "Rational Inattention and Aggregate Fluctuations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, April.
  136. Reinout De Bock, 2007. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Labor Market Frictions," Working Paper Research 108, National Bank of Belgium.
  137. Sam Hak Kan Tang & Nicolaas Groenewold & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2003. "Institutions, Technical Change and Macroeconomic Volatility, Crises and Growth: A Robust Causation," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  138. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2004. "Inside the black box: permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  139. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive intermediary firms and sticky nominal wages: the case of Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 175183, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  140. Frédéric Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and Productivity Components of Business Cycles : Estimates and Implications," Working Papers halshs-00789009, HAL.
  141. Qin Zhang & Jin Boon Wong, 2022. "Do oil shocks impact stock liquidity?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 472-491, March.
  142. Perli, Roberto & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 1998. "Human capital formation and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 67-92, June.
  143. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2007. "A monetary business cycle model with unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3904-3940, December.
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