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Introduction aux modèles espace état et au filtre de Kalman

Author

Listed:
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Florian Pelgrin

    (Faculté des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC))

Abstract

Nous détaillons ici les principaux concepts et problèmes liés aux modèles espace-état, ainsi que leurs applications. Nous présentons d’abord ces modèles dans leur généralité. Ensuite, nous explicitons les algorithmes utilisés afin de procéder à l’estimation par le maximum de vraisemblance, c’est-à-dire fondamentalement le filtre de Kalman et l’algorithme EM. Nous considérons enfin quatre applications : les décompositions tendance-cycle, l’extraction d’indicateurs coïncidents d’activité, l’estimation d’un taux de chômage d’équilibre pouvant varier avec le temps (TV-Nairu) et l’évaluation du contenu informatif de la courbe des taux sur l’inflation future.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace état et au filtre de Kalman," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2129, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 6636.
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    9. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
    10. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    11. Garbade, Kenneth & Wachtel, Paul, 1978. "Time variation in the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 755-765, November.
    12. Chopin, Nicolas & Pelgrin, Florian, 2004. "Bayesian inference and state number determination for hidden Markov models: an application to the information content of the yield curve about inflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 327-344, December.
    13. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bationo, Rakissiwinde & Hounkpodote, Hilaire, 2009. "Estimation des changements des cours du café et du cacao: Filtre de Kalman, filtre de Hodrick-Prescott et modélisation à partir de processus markovien
      [Estimated Changes in Prices of Coffee and Coc
      ," MPRA Paper 26980, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2007. "Transmission des chocs et mécanismes d'ajustement dans le Mercosur," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 101(2), pages 355-392.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Écart de production dans la zone euro. Une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 173-202.
    5. Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(3), pages 321-357, septembre.
    6. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2010. "Processus d’intégration et coordination des politiques macroéconomiques dans le Mercosur : une approche en termes de cycles," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(2), pages 163-204, juin.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2128 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    9. Fathi, Elachhab, 2007. "Une analyse historiographique des causes du cycle économique en Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(3), pages 359-397, septembre.

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