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Processus d'intégration et coordination des politiques macroéconomiques dans le Mercosur : une approche en termes de cycles

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    () (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    () (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Monetary integration in Mercosur processed in a context of strong macroeconomic volatility. This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union within this zone. Instead of taking into account all the criteria of the optimal currencies areas, this study focuses on the macroeconomic cycles in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. First, this paper presents a semi-structural VAR model for each country. It allows us to determine the source of shocks that hit these countries. Second, we decompose structural innovations –especially economic policies shocks- of domestic SSVAR into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components using a state-space model. We see in what extent economic policies are coordinated between the Mercosur countries. Résumé : Le processus d’intégration monétaire dans le Mercosur s’effectue dans un contexte de forte volatilité macroéconomique. Cet article analyse la faisabilité d’une union monétaire au sein de cette zone. Au lieu de prendre en compte l’ensemble des critères des zones monétaires optimales, cette étude se focalise sur les cycles macroéconomiques de l’Argentine, du Brésil et de l’Uruguay. Dans un premier temps, un modèle VAR semi-structurel est construit pour chaque pays afin de déterminer les sources des chocs. Dans un second temps, une modélisation espace-état permet d’estimer dans quelle mesure les chocs – et en particulier les chocs de politique économique – ont une composante commune pouvant montrer l’esquisse d’une coordination.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2010. "Processus d'intégration et coordination des politiques macroéconomiques dans le Mercosur : une approche en termes de cycles," Post-Print halshs-00665778, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00665778
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00665778
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    Keywords

    cycles; intégration; Mercosur;

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