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Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre : une comparaison France / Etats-Unis

Listed author(s):
  • Eric Heyer

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Frédéric Reynès

    (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

L’article compare deux stratégies d’estimation du taux de chômage d’équilibre (TCE). Selon l’approche réduite du TV-NAIRU, le TCE détermine directement l’inflation. Considéré comme inobservable, il suit un processus stochastique et est estimé par le filtre de Kalman à partir d’une courbe de Phillips réduite. Selon l’approche structurelle, le TCE est une pure construction théorique. Il n’est pas un déterminant direct de l’inflation mais est calculable à partir de l’observation du processus inflationniste. Ceci nécessite l’estimation d’un modèle structurel de formation des prix et des salaires (...).

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2005/resources/wp2004-03.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number N° 2004-03.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005
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