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Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre : une comparaison France / Etats-Unis

Author

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  • Eric Heyer

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Frédéric Reynès

    (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

L’article compare deux stratégies d’estimation du taux de chômage d’équilibre (TCE). Selon l’approche réduite du TV-NAIRU, le TCE détermine directement l’inflation. Considéré comme inobservable, il suit un processus stochastique et est estimé par le filtre de Kalman à partir d’une courbe de Phillips réduite. Selon l’approche structurelle, le TCE est une pure construction théorique. Il n’est pas un déterminant direct de l’inflation mais est calculable à partir de l’observation du processus inflationniste. Ceci nécessite l’estimation d’un modèle structurel de formation des prix et des salaires (...).

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre : une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications N° 2004-03, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    2. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.

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